百胜中国（09987）：Q4同店与利润率优化超预期，龙头韧性凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK/YUMC.N) with a target price of 492.22 HKD or 63.05 USD per share, indicating an expected strong performance relative to the market [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2025 results with revenue of 2.82 billion USD, a year-over-year increase of 9%. Core operating profit rose by 23% to 190 million USD, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24% to 140 million USD [7]. - Same-store sales growth for KFC improved to 3% in Q4 2025, up from 2% in Q3 2025, with transaction volume remaining stable. Pizza Hut's same-store sales also held steady at 1% [7]. - The company continues to expand its store network, adding 1,706 new stores in 2025, bringing the total to 18,101. The target for 2026 is to reach 20,000 stores, with an expected net increase of approximately 1,900 stores [7]. - Restaurant profit margins are improving, with KFC's margin at 14.0%, up 0.7 percentage points year-over-year, and Pizza Hut's margin at 9.9%, up 0.6 percentage points [7]. - The company aims to maintain high shareholder returns, with a target of 1.5 billion USD in shareholder returns for 2026, reflecting a return rate of 7.7% based on current market capitalization [7]. - Profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 estimate net profits of 1.0 billion, 1.08 billion, and 1.16 billion USD, respectively, with a strong expectation for store-level optimization and continued expansion [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2028 are as follows: 11.30 billion USD (2024), 11.80 billion USD (2025), 12.45 billion USD (2026), 13.14 billion USD (2027), and 13.86 billion USD (2028), with growth rates of 3.0%, 4.4%, 5.5%, 5.6%, and 5.5% respectively [2][10]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 911 million USD in 2024 to 1.16 billion USD in 2028, with growth rates of 10.2%, 2.0%, 7.8%, 7.8%, and 7.1% [2][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 2.33 CNY in 2024 to 3.72 CNY in 2028, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 20.56 to 14.85 [2][10].