海外市场分析：金银：“历史性”下跌之后？

Market Analysis - Recent historic declines in gold and silver prices raise the question of whether the bull market for these metals has ended[4] - The conditions for a market termination are not yet mature, as evidenced by historical bull markets in the 1970s and early 21st century[4] - Current market volatility appears localized, with limited spillover effects into broader equity and bond markets[4] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised margin requirements for gold and silver, indicating potential regulatory tightening[4] - Despite speculation about a shift in monetary policy with the nomination of Walsh, the overall direction remains accommodative, contrasting with past tightening periods in 1980 and 2011[4] Commodity Cycle Perspective - The current commodity cycle may still be in its early stages, with many energy and agricultural products showing insufficient price increases since 2020[4] - If the belief in a long-term commodity bull market persists, gold and silver may participate in future rallies, albeit with limited price elasticity[4] Investment Strategy - Following the recent significant drop in gold and silver prices, the market narrative may not be substantially affected in the short term[4] - Investors should monitor where capital flows from precious metals, potentially into undervalued commodities or shifts in stock market styles[4] - Short-term, the safe-haven appeal of gold and silver may diminish, prompting a focus on other assets like oil and bonds[4]