GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-02-07 01:56Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with the "opening red" sales expected to remain under pressure year-on-year, while brand differentiation is evident. Positive feedback from high-end liquor is significantly boosting market confidence, and a shift in style and improved expectations may catalyze liquor stock prices [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The liquor market is experiencing a deep adjustment, with sales and revenue expected to decline throughout the year. However, there are signs of marginal improvement starting from Q4 2025, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [6] High-End Liquor Performance - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, with Moutai and Wuliangye implementing strategies to stabilize prices and enhance channel profits. Moutai's sales performance has improved, with significant user engagement and order volume [6][7] Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which are expected to clear inventory [6][7] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its current cycle, with potential catalysts for stock prices including improvements in sales, price increases, and inventory reduction. Positive signals from policy changes could further enhance market sentiment [6][7]