2025 年年度业绩预告，盈利景气修复可期：“春季躁动”的景气线索
Changjiang Securities·2026-02-07 08:00

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the overall A-share pre-announcement rate has improved, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability for 2025 [2][5][15] - As of February 3, 2026, approximately 3,000 out of 5,478 A-share listed companies have disclosed their performance forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 54.0% and a pre-announcement rate of 37.0%, an increase from 33.7% in 2024 [5][15] - The number of companies expecting profit increases in 2025 is 623, while 378 companies anticipate profit decreases [5][15] Group 2 - In terms of market style, large-cap companies are expected to show better profitability than small-cap companies, with the ChiNext board having a higher pre-announcement rate [6][18] - The net profit maximum fluctuation for major indices in 2025 is projected to be 55.2% for CSI 300, 82.8% for SSE 50, 54.7% for CSI 500, and 50.8% for CSI 1000 [6][18] - The pre-announcement rates for these indices are 63.2% for CSI 300, 83.3% for SSE 50, 59.0% for CSI 500, and 49.4% for CSI 1000 [6][18] Group 3 - Industry-wise, the defense and electronics sectors have shown a high level of disclosure and pre-announcement rates, indicating a strong possibility of improved performance [7][21] - As of February 3, 2026, the highest disclosure rates among primary industries are coal (81%), real estate (78%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (74%), and computer (72%) [7][21] - The highest pre-announcement rates are seen in non-bank financials (96.2%), non-ferrous metals (67.6%), automotive (52.7%), and steel (50.0%) [7][21] Group 4 - The report anticipates a gradual bull market in 2026, driven by a recovery in profitability and favorable liquidity conditions [8] - The valuation of stocks is expected to remain near historical averages, with low interest rates continuing to provide upward momentum for valuations [8] - The report suggests focusing on technology, domestic circulation, strategic security, and opening up as key investment directions [8]