策略周报：持股过节，还是持币过节？-20260207

Core Conclusions - The probability of A-shares rising before and after the Spring Festival exceeds 70%, with a trend of reduced trading volume before the holiday and increased volume afterward [1][11] - Historical data shows that leveraged funds typically flow out before the holiday and flow back in afterward, while ETF funds show a pattern of inflow before and a slowdown in inflow after, contributing to the observed changes in trading volume and style differentiation in A-shares [2][16] - Current macroeconomic policies are positive, and overseas risks are manageable, suggesting that holding stocks during the holiday may be a better strategy, with a balanced allocation focusing on technology, particularly AI applications, and attention to cyclical sectors and real estate [2][19] Trading Volume and Style Differentiation - A-shares typically experience reduced trading volume before the Spring Festival, averaging a 4.0% decrease, while trading volume increases by an average of 22.3% after the holiday [11][13] - The probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the week before the Spring Festival is 81%, with an average increase of 1.8%, while the probability for the week after is 76%, with an average increase of 1.3% [15] - Growth and value styles perform similarly before and after the holiday, but large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks before the holiday, while small-cap stocks significantly outperform large-cap stocks afterward, with a 87.5% probability of small-cap stocks rising in the week after [12][15] Fund Flow Analysis - Leveraged funds show a significant outflow before the Spring Festival, with an average net buy of -66.9 billion yuan, while they exhibit a net inflow of 14.2 billion yuan after the holiday [16][18] - ETF funds experience net inflows averaging 214.3 billion yuan before the holiday, but the net inflow decreases to 171.9 billion yuan after, with a lower probability of net inflows [16][18] - Foreign capital flows show little change before and after the holiday, maintaining a net inflow probability of 60-70% [16][17] Sector Allocation Strategy - The technology sector remains a key focus, driven by the AI wave, with expectations for the market to shift from hardware to application development [20] - There are opportunities in traditional value sectors, such as undervalued real estate and liquor stocks, as the spring market rally progresses [20][21] - The cyclical sector is also worth monitoring due to emerging demand from AI and new energy industries, alongside improving supply-demand dynamics in resource sectors [20]