Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-02-06 08:51Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the new energy sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a significant increase in both volume and price in Q4 2025, with production across various segments showing substantial year-on-year growth [2]. - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a reduction in losses, but Q4 is anticipated to face renewed pressure due to rising costs in silver paste and silicon materials [2]. - The wind power sector is projected to recover significantly, driven by a 50.4% year-on-year increase in installed capacity, with expectations of improved profitability in 2025 [2]. - The energy storage market is expected to maintain high growth rates, with independent storage becoming a key growth driver [2]. - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: cyclical growth, technological innovation, supply-side optimization, and expanding into AIDC as a secondary business [2]. Summary by Sections Lithium Battery - Q4 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in production across various lithium battery components, with production volumes for ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, anodes, separators, electrolytes, and batteries showing increases of 15% to 26% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Prices for key materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate are expected to rise, contributing to stable profitability in the battery segment [2]. Photovoltaic - The PV industry reported significant losses in the first three quarters of 2025, but with marginal improvements. Q4 is expected to be challenging due to cost increases and asset impairment provisions [2]. - The cash flow in the silicon material segment is beginning to recover, and financing inflows are increasing, indicating structural improvements [2]. Wind Power - The installed capacity of wind power in China is expected to reach 119.33 GW in 2025, marking a 50.4% increase year-on-year, leading to a substantial recovery in net profits for the sector [2]. - The report anticipates that the profitability of wind turbine manufacturing will improve significantly, especially with the clearing of low-price orders from 2025 [2]. Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is expected to continue its rapid growth, with independent storage becoming a core growth driver through capacity leasing and electricity market transactions [2]. - The report forecasts a strong demand for large-scale and commercial energy storage in 2026, driven by emerging markets and improved utilization rates in China [2].