宏观经济周报：开局遇冷，二月回暖

Economic Performance - January data shows significant structural differentiation in the economy, with the Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) remaining stable compared to January 2024, indicating a robust start[1] - Manufacturing PMI declined compared to January 2024, particularly in key demand indicators like production and new orders, highlighting a weaker manufacturing sector[1] - Overall, January's economic performance reflects structural optimization but a slowdown in total growth compared to December 2025, indicating a temporary setback in recovery[1] February Trends - Positive signals emerged in the first week of February, with broad improvements in economic activities across various sectors, driven by strong domestic demand and foreign trade[2] - Production activities in infrastructure, machinery, and textiles showed significant recovery, while consumer activity was boosted by pre-holiday stocking and increased travel, with urban passenger flow and logistics delivery volumes rising significantly[2] - Port throughput increased by 53.34% year-on-year, driven by pre-holiday export surges, indicating strong external demand resilience[2] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with new home sales recovering from low levels and downward pressure on prices easing[2] - The second-hand housing market exhibited "hold-sell" behavior, with a decrease in listings and reduced market pressure, suggesting a potential shift in market expectations[2] Investment and Fiscal Data - Fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 3.80%, while retail sales increased by 0.90% and exports rose by 6.60% in January[4] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is progressing faster than last year, with a cumulative issuance of 589.9 billion yuan, exceeding the 378.1 billion yuan from the same period last year[4] Risks - There are risks associated with overseas market volatility, which could introduce uncertainties into the economic outlook[3]