国信期货铁矿石周报：情绪转弱，铁矿弱势震荡-20260208

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment is weak, and iron ore is oscillating weakly. The overall supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level, but there are signs of a decline under high inventory pressure. The port and steel mill inventories have increased, and the iron ore supply - demand pressure will increase. The iron ore with weak supply - demand fundamentals will continue to weaken, and the short - term recommendation is to participate with a short - bias [10][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1走势回顾 (Trend Review) - Iron Ore Futures Main Contract Trend: The market sentiment is weak, and iron ore is oscillating weakly [10]. - Iron Ore Spot Trend: The prices of different types of iron ore powder are provided. For example, PB powder is 768, and its previous price was 804; Super Special powder is 652, and its previous price was 851, etc. [14]. 3.2基差价差 (Basis and Spread) - Iron Ore Futures - Spot Price Spread Trend: The main contract basis is 3.5, 05 - 09 spread is 17.5, pb - super special spread is 116, and barite - pb spread is - 20 [21]. - Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore: The ratio of rebar to iron ore strengthened slightly at a low level [22]. 3.3供需分析 (Supply - Demand Analysis) - Iron Ore Supply: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines is 1,855.4 tons, a slight week - on - week increase, and the supply is at a relatively high level. The domestic mine capacity utilization rate is 58.45%, a slight week - on - week decrease. There is a sign of supply decline under high inventory pressure [28]. - International Ocean Freight: The iron ore freight rate from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 8.3 US dollars/ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.21 US dollars/ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 1936 [31]. - Imported Iron Ore Inventory: The port inventory is 17,140.71 tons, Australian ore inventory is 7,903.27 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5,536.43 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2,269.4 tons, and trading ore inventory is 11,316.72 tons [34]. - Steel Mill Iron Ore Inventory: The port inventory increased by 118.45 tons week - on - week to 17,140.71 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased by 348.05 tons week - on - week to 10,316.64 tons. The available days for steel mills' imported iron ore increased by 4 days to 31 days. After the pre - Spring Festival active restocking, the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase [38]. - Iron Ore Demand: The daily average pig iron production this week was 228.58 tons, a slight week - on - week increase. The pig iron production rebounded slightly but with limited strength. The port clearance volume increased significantly week - on - week, and the steel mills' restocking of iron ore is basically in place [41]. 3.4后市展望 (Outlook) - The iron ore will continue to be weak due to weakening market sentiment and its own weak supply - demand fundamentals. The short - term operation suggestion is to participate with a short - bias [46].