国信期货甲醇周报：供需双弱，甲醇窄幅波动-20260208

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a situation of weak supply and demand with narrow - range fluctuations. Recently, due to geopolitical events and more shutdowns of foreign methanol plants, the US - dollar - denominated methanol price is oscillating strongly. The domestic market maintains high operation, with sufficient production, and the inland area mainly reduces prices to clear inventories. Before the festival, there is still restocking demand from middle - and downstream users, and methanol fluctuates significantly with crude oil [47]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Price Difference Trends - The closing price of the main methanol contract MA2605 on Friday is 2,240 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of over 4% and a position of 820,000 lots. The basis has slightly strengthened but remains at a discount [6]. 1.2 Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Price Differences between Production and Sales Areas - The spot methanol market has declined slightly this week. The weekly average price in the Taicang area is 2,229 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decline of 2.2%. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia is 1,792 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decline of 0.14%. Due to pre - festival restocking by downstream users, the procurement enthusiasm has increased, and the inventory pressure in the main production areas is not large this week. The large - scale downstream factories along the coast are well - stocked, and overall demand is expected to gradually weaken [9]. 1.3 Methanol Foreign - Market Prices and Price Differences between Domestic and Foreign Markets - In the foreign market, the reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 259 - 267 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation price for Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future is +1 - 2.5% [12]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Methanol Operating Rate - The overall operating load of domestic methanol plants this week is 78.32%, an increase of 0.76 percentage points from last week and 2.12 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 89.49%, an increase of 1.40 percentage points from last week and 3.80 percentage points from the same period last year. Some plants are still under maintenance, and the operating loads in the northwest and north China have increased, driving up the national methanol operating load [17]. 2.2 Methanol Import and Export Volumes - The import arbitrage window is closed, while the re - export arbitrage window remains open [20]. 2.3 Methanol Port Inventory - The coastal methanol inventory is 1.395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.37%. The overall pick - up volume in Taicang this week has increased compared with last week, and the estimated available methanol supply in the coastal area is around 737,000 tons. It is expected that the volume of imported methanol ships arriving in China in mid - February will be 590,000 tons, with more arrivals at major downstream factories [23]. 2.4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas - The international natural gas price has risen and then fallen, and the import cost of natural - gas - based methanol has dropped to 1,660 yuan/ton [24]. 2.5 Methanol's Upstream - Coal - The domestic thermal coal market has weak supply and demand this week, and coal prices are stable with a weak trend. The supply in production areas has shrunk, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, resulting in stable but weak pit - mouth prices [32]. 2.6 Methanol's Downstream Prices and Operating Rates - The demand - side weighted operating rate is 74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream industries is 55%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8% [33]. 2.7 Methanol's Downstream - Traditional Downstream - Not summarized due to lack of clear text description. 2.8 Methanol's Downstream - MTO - The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants this week is 80.61%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points from last week. Among them, the average load of MTO plants using externally purchased methanol is 69.76%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points from last week. The 300,000 - ton plant of Yangmei Hengtong has restarted, leading to a slight increase in the domestic MTO operating rate. The operating load of Chengzhi Phase II is low, and Xingxing Energy is shut down, with the restart time to be determined [44]. 3. Outlook for the Future - Recently, due to geopolitical events and more shutdowns of foreign methanol plants, the US - dollar - denominated methanol price is oscillating strongly. The domestic market maintains high operation, with sufficient production, and the inland area mainly reduces prices to clear inventories. Before the festival, there is still restocking demand from middle - and downstream users, and methanol fluctuates significantly with crude oil [47].