Changjiang Securities·2026-02-08 05:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The total market value of heavy holdings in the computer sector for Q4 2025 is approximately 23.27 billion, down from 37.36 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a decrease of about 14.09 billion. The concentration of holdings has further increased, with a higher proportion in storage and vertical applications. Overall, the allocation ratio for the computer industry has reached a historically low level, indicating limited downside potential. With the acceleration of AI application commercialization, the sector is expected to see a recovery [2][5][6][35]. Summary by Sections Heavy Holdings and Allocation - The heavy allocation ratio for the computer sector has continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 1.6% in Q4 2025, down 0.7 percentage points from Q3 2025. The heavy allocation ratios over the past year have been -2.8%, -3.4%, -3.6%, and -3.8%, indicating a deepening decline [19][20]. Sector Performance and Fund Flow - The absolute value of holdings in various sub-sectors has generally decreased, with increased pressure from fund outflows. The top five sub-sectors by market value in Q4 2025 are IT infrastructure (2.8%), government IT (2.3%), industrial software (2.1%), cybersecurity (1.7%), and automotive IT (1.7%). The government IT sector saw a significant increase of 0.6%, while energy IT experienced a notable decline of 1.3% [6][34]. Concentration of Holdings - The concentration of holdings in the computer sector has significantly increased, reaching a new high. The CR10 and CR5 concentration ratios rose from 65.9% to 69.8% and from 49.1% to 57.8%, respectively, indicating a trend towards increased concentration of fund holdings [7][43]. Future Outlook - The application and computing power chains are expected to continue attracting institutional investments, with a focus on structural opportunities amid sector rotation. The current optimistic narrative surrounding AI is expected to drive demand for computing power, particularly as AI applications begin to materialize in various high-value scenarios [8][27][28]. Valuation Metrics - As of February 3, 2026, the latest PE-TTM for the Jiangsu computer index is 68.5 times, which is at the 91st percentile since 2016. In comparison, the latest PE-TTM for the CSI 300 is 13.3 times, at the 78th percentile [48][50].