转债节前建议以平衡风险为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas asset fluctuations have been repaired. Although the fourth - quarter reports of tech giants show that cloud - computing revenue and 2026 capex expenditure guidance exceed expectations, market divergence is rising, and the previous structured market is undergoing "destructuring". At least in the first half of 2026, tech growth will maintain its momentum due to factors such as the decrease in the expectation of the Fed's marginal monetary policy easing and the potential IPO of OpenAI in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 [1][37]. - In the domestic equity market, defensive sectors like food and beverage performed well last week, followed by pro - cyclical sectors, while tech growth sectors generally showed high volatility. For convertible bonds, due to the priority of winning rate over odds, high - volatility targets with tech themes and mostly being new - issue targets make it difficult to control drawdowns and increase the difficulty of speculation. Before the holiday, it is recommended to balance risks. High - position funds should actively switch from high - to low - risk assets, and low - position funds should seize the opportunity to invest in targets with clear performance inflection points and high visibility of upward trends in 2026 [1][37][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Market Review 3.1.1. Overall Decline in the Equity Market - From February 2nd to February 6th, the equity market declined overall. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27% to 4065.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.11% to 13906.73 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 3.28% to 3236.46 points, and the CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.60 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by 21.36% week - on - week to 23879.96 billion yuan [6][10]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 16 industries closed up, with 3 industries rising more than 2%. Food and beverage, beauty care, power equipment, transportation, and banking led the gains, rising 4.31%, 3.69%, 2.20%, 1.90%, and 1.70% respectively. Non - ferrous metals, communication, electronics, steel, and computer led the losses, with declines of - 8.51%, - 6.95%, - 5.23%, - 3.35%, and - 3.27% respectively [16]. 3.1.2. Overall Rise in the Convertible Bond Market - From February 2nd to February 6th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.05% to 520.79 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 22 industries closed up, with 2 industries rising more than 2%. Social services, power equipment, transportation, national defense and military industry, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, rising 4.95%, 2.95%, 1.85%, 1.76%, and 1.42% respectively. Computer, electronics, communication, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals led the losses, falling 4.85%, 3.06%, 2.22%, 2.13%, and 1.94% respectively [19]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 902.09 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 30.87 billion yuan, with a month - on - month change of - 3.31%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Shangtai Convertible Bond, Naipu Convertible Bond 02, Dongshi Convertible Bond, Yanpai Convertible Bond, Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Jize Convertible Bond, Yongji Convertible Bond, Jiemei Convertible Bond, Tairui Convertible Bond, and Jialian Convertible Bond. The average trading volume of the top ten convertible bonds reached 116.84 billion yuan, and the trading volume of the top - ranked bond was 335.59 billion yuan [19]. - Approximately 54.71% of individual convertible bonds rose, about 21.73% of them had a gain in the range of 0 - 1%, and 17.54% of them had a gain of more than 2% [19]. - The overall market conversion premium rate increased, with the average daily conversion premium rate this week being 44.31%, a 1.56 - percentage - point increase from last week. By price range, except for the convertible bonds in the price range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rate quantiles of convertible bonds in other price ranges narrowed. The narrowing amplitude was the largest in the 110 - 120 yuan price range, reaching 30.31 percentage points. By parity range, except for the convertible bonds in the parity range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other parity ranges narrowed, with the largest narrowing amplitude of 15.41 percentage points in the 110 - 120 yuan parity range [24]. - In terms of the premium rate changes of each industry, the conversion premium rates of 12 industries widened, with 3 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2 percentage points. Social services, household appliances, food and beverage, media, and textile and apparel led the widening, with amplitudes of 9.03, 3.54, 2.90, 1.59, and 1.27 percentage points respectively. Building materials, communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non - bank finance, and electronics led the narrowing, with amplitudes of - 14.89, - 14.64, - 5.78, - 4.62, and - 3.81 percentage points respectively [28]. - In terms of conversion parity, the parity of 4 industries increased, with 1 industry having a widening amplitude of more than 2%. Communication, transportation, banking, and social services led the widening, with amplitudes of 16.51%, 1.19%, 0.61%, and 0.13% respectively. Non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, building materials, automobiles, and electronics led the narrowing, with amplitudes of - 29.31%, - 15.94%, - 13.22%, - 11.74%, and - 10.64% respectively [30]. 3.1.3. Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From February 2nd to February 6th, the weekly weighted average change of the convertible bond market was negative, and the median was positive. The weekly weighted average change of the underlying stock market was positive, and the median was negative. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 4.05% month - on - month and was at the 82.40% quantile level since 2022. The trading volume of the underlying stock market decreased by 22.67% month - on - month and was at the 88.20% quantile level since 2022. Both the underlying stocks and convertible bonds had a significant reduction in trading volume, and the underlying stock trading volume was at a higher quantile level. In terms of the proportion of rising and falling stocks and bonds, about 60.00% of convertible bonds closed up, and about 43.85% of underlying stocks closed up. About 64.62% of convertible bonds had a larger change than the underlying stocks. In general, the trading sentiment of the convertible bond market was better this week [34]. 3.2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Overseas asset fluctuations have been repaired. Although the fourth - quarter reports of tech giants show that cloud - computing revenue and 2026 capex expenditure guidance exceed expectations, market divergence is rising, and the previous structured market is undergoing "destructuring". At least in the first half of 2026, tech growth will maintain its momentum due to factors such as the decrease in the expectation of the Fed's marginal monetary policy easing and the potential IPO of OpenAI in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 [1][37]. - In the domestic equity market, defensive sectors like food and beverage performed well last week, followed by pro - cyclical sectors, while tech growth sectors generally showed high volatility. For convertible bonds, due to the priority of winning rate over odds, high - volatility targets with tech themes and mostly being new - issue targets make it difficult to control drawdowns and increase the difficulty of speculation. Before the holiday, it is recommended to balance risks. High - position funds should actively switch from high - to low - risk assets, and low - position funds should seize the opportunity to invest in targets with clear performance inflection points and high visibility of upward trends in 2026 [1][37][39]. - Specific targets recommended for attention include Bo 25, Baolong, Saite, Huitian, Suli, Jianlong, Tairui, Yongjin, Zhongte, Yongxi, Dinglong, Li'ang, Shenglan Convertible Bond 02, Chaosheng, Lihe, Huachen, Tiannai Convertible Bond, etc. [1][39]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Lianchuang Convertible Bond, Xingye Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, and Ziyin Convertible Bond [1][39].