Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2026-02-08 06:47Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The real estate sector is expected to gradually stabilize, which may lead to a recovery in valuations for the home appliance industry. Current stock prices may have fully reflected short-term risks due to factors such as demand being pulled forward by national subsidies, upstream price increases, and currency appreciation [3][4] - The core pressure on domestic demand is likely to ease as signs of stabilization in the real estate market emerge. After a deep correction from 2022 to 2025, domestic housing inventory is gradually being reduced, with recent increases in second-hand housing transaction volumes in Shanghai and narrowing price declines in first-tier cities [4][8] - The leading companies in the white goods sector are currently valued at historically low levels, with projected P/E ratios for 2026 being 12 for Midea Group, 7 for Gree Electric Appliances, and 10 for Haier Smart Home. If the real estate market stabilizes, these companies may see a valuation recovery [14] Summary by Sections 1. Signs of Stabilization in Real Estate - Signs of stabilization in the real estate market are emerging, with domestic housing inventory gradually decreasing and recent increases in second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai. The drag effect of real estate on domestic demand is expected to gradually diminish [4][8] 2. Company Performance Forecasts - Ninebot Company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.67-1.85 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.0%-70.6%. However, Q4 2025 may see a net loss of 120 million yuan to a profit of 60 million yuan due to factors like exchange losses [5][16] - Huabao New Energy is projected to have a net profit of 15.5-23 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 90.4%-93.5%, with Q4 2025 expected to incur a net loss of 120-130 million yuan [5][16] - Ecovacs is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.7-1.8 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 110.9%-123.3%, with Q4 2025 projected to yield a net profit of 280-380 million yuan [5][16] 3. Market Review - The home appliance sector saw a weekly increase of 1.3% from February 2 to February 6, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.6 percentage points. The white goods segment increased by 1.7%, while black goods decreased by 1.9% [17][19] 4. Key Data Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, the RMB appreciated by 88 basis points against the USD, continuing its upward trend. This short-term fluctuation is not expected to affect the core competitiveness of export companies [21] - The LME copper spot price was $12,840 per ton, down 4.0% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in raw material prices [21][22]