Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-02-08 07:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates a stabilization in market sentiment, with commodity prices finding a bottom. Industrial metal prices have shown fluctuations, with copper and aluminum facing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and seasonal supply excess [7][21][41]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt and nickel, with expectations for price increases in these metals. Conversely, lithium prices are on a downward trend due to market dynamics [7][41][60]. - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant pullback, primarily driven by technical factors and profit-taking, but long-term support remains strong due to central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [7][75]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in major indices, with the SW Nonferrous Index dropping by 4.68% during the week [7]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted for their strong earnings forecasts and attractive valuations [2]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Price and Stock Correlation Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of the price movements of various base metals, including aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, with specific price changes noted for each metal [13][21]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices have shown a slight decline, with LME prices at $3,110 per ton, down 0.81% week-on-week. Copper prices are at $13,060 per ton, down 0.08% [13][21]. - The report emphasizes the seasonal supply excess impacting copper demand, particularly as the Chinese New Year approaches [41]. 2.3 Lead, Tin, Nickel - Lead prices have decreased to $1,948.5 per ton, while nickel prices have faced significant pressure, dropping below $17,000 per ton due to macroeconomic sentiment shifts [58][60]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have decreased to an average of 1,110.73 CNY per gram, while silver prices have dropped to 25,465 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a broader market correction [75]. 3.2 Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are under pressure but are expected to stabilize due to ongoing supply constraints. The report notes that the current market price for cobalt is around 415,000 CNY per ton [60].