流动性与机构行为周度跟踪260207：DR001时隔1月重回1.3下方存单年内首现净融资-20260208

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The central bank's over - renewal of repurchase and large - scale 14 - day reverse repurchase reflect its intention to maintain liquidity stability before the Spring Festival. As long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the capital market around the Spring Festival is expected to remain loose. The net financing of certificates of deposit this week may be due to banks' need to maintain stable liabilities before the festival, and it's hard to infer a significant increase in banks' liability pressure. The government bond net payment scale may rise next week, but considering the central bank's measures, the capital market is still expected to be relatively loose [5][38][60]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Capital Market Review - The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of 756 billion yuan through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchases this week. On Wednesday, it conducted an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase, with an over - renewal of 10 billion yuan. After the month - end, the OMO shifted to net withdrawal, but the capital demand at the beginning of the month was limited. Despite the increasing pressure of government bond payments in the second half of the week, the over - renewal of the 3 - month repurchase and the subsequent 14 - day OMO operations made the capital market looser, and DR001 fell below 1.3% on Friday [3][17]. - After the month - end, the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to rise, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 0.95 trillion yuan to 8.75 trillion yuan. The overall scale of pledged repurchase rose rapidly at the beginning of the month and then fluctuated, remaining above 13 trillion yuan on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks continued to rise, while that of small and medium - sized banks decreased slightly. The net lending of non - bank institutions showed different trends, and the capital gap index generally declined [4][24]. - The progress of cross - Spring Festival financing in the inter - bank and exchange markets was at the lowest level in recent years, and the gap compared with previous years in the inter - bank market continued to widen. The overall cross - Spring Festival progress in the whole market was 13.1%, 8.1 percentage points lower than the average of the same period from 2020 - 2025 [29]. 1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 46.04 billion yuan. Next week, the issuance of 7 - year treasury bonds is about 20 billion yuan, and 8 regions will issue local bonds worth 32.21 billion yuan. Due to the low maturity scale of government bonds next week, the net payment scale of government bonds may rise to 71.41 billion yuan [39][41]. - The central bank's use of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations shows its clear attitude of protecting liquidity. The 6 - month repurchase due next week is expected to be over - renewed, so the capital market is expected to remain relatively loose [60]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 1.11 BP to 1.6169% compared with January 30th. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1 BP to 1.585% compared with last week [61]. - This week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased, resulting in a net financing of 37.27 billion yuan, an increase of 46.29 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 9.46 billion yuan, 8.82 billion yuan, 13.69 billion yuan, and 2.59 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 9 - month certificates of deposit was the largest, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 17 percentage points to 13% compared with last week. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 97.82 billion yuan, an increase of 84.43 billion yuan compared with this week [67]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks all increased compared with last week, and were around the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [68]. - The willingness of money market funds to increase the holding of certificates of deposit in the primary market recovered, and the willingness of fund companies to reduce the holding in the secondary market weakened. The relative strength index of certificates of deposit rebounded counter - seasonally in the second half of the week, rising by 3.9 percentage points to 19.6% compared with last week. Except for the 9 - month supply - demand index, the supply - demand indexes of other terms increased [75]. 3. Bill Market - This week, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased, with a large decline on Monday. As of February 6th, the 3 - month and 6 - month bill interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased by 44 BP and 16 BP respectively compared with January 30th, to 1.01% and 0.95% [82]. 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the yields of interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward, and the credit and perpetual bond spreads generally widened passively. Large - scale banks generally tended to reduce their bond holdings, with an increased willingness to reduce local bonds and a decreased willingness to increase inter - bank certificates of deposit, 5 - year policy - financial bonds, 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds. Trading - type institutions generally tended to increase their bond holdings, with different trends among different institutions. Allocation - type institutions generally tended to increase their bond holdings, with different trends among different institutions [85].