择时雷达六面图：本周资金面和宏观基本面弱化

• The "Timing Radar Six-Facet Chart" is a multi-dimensional timing framework that evaluates equity market performance based on liquidity, economic conditions, valuation, capital flow, technical trends, and crowding metrics. It aggregates 21 indicators into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a composite timing score ranging from [-1,1] [1][6][8] - Liquidity factors include "Monetary Direction Factor," which calculates the average change in monetary policy rates and short-term market rates over 90 days. A positive value indicates monetary easing, scoring 1 this week [10][11]. The "Monetary Strength Factor" uses the deviation of DR007 from the 7-year reverse repo rate, smoothed and standardized. This week, it scored 0, indicating a neutral signal [12][13]. The "Credit Direction Factor" evaluates the trend of medium-to-long-term loans over 12 months. A positive trend scores 1, which was observed this week [15][16]. The "Credit Strength Factor" measures the deviation of new RMB loans from expectations. This week, it scored -1, signaling a significant underperformance [18][19] - Economic factors include "Growth Direction Factor," derived from PMI data (manufacturing and non-manufacturing), calculating the 12-month average and year-over-year change. A downward trend scored -1 this week [20][21]. The "Growth Strength Factor" measures PMI deviations from expectations. This week, it scored -1, indicating significant underperformance [23][24]. The "Inflation Direction Factor" combines CPI and PPI data to assess inflation trends. An upward trend scored -1 this week [25][26]. The "Inflation Strength Factor" calculates CPI and PPI deviations from expectations. This week, it scored 0, indicating a neutral signal [27][31] - Valuation factors include "Shiller ERP," calculated as 1/Shiller PE minus the 10-year government bond yield, standardized over six years. This week, it scored -0.04, slightly improving [28][29]. The "PB Factor" uses the price-to-book ratio, standardized over six years, and scored -0.66 this week, showing a slight increase [32][33]. The "AIAE Factor" measures equity allocation relative to total market capitalization and debt, standardized over six years. This week, it remained at -1.00 [34][35] - Capital flow factors include "Margin Financing Increment," which compares the 120-day average increase in margin financing to the 240-day average. A positive trend scored 1 this week [37][39]. The "Trading Volume Trend" evaluates the logarithmic moving average distance of trading volume over 120 and 240 days. A positive trend scored 1 this week [40][42]. External capital flow indicators include "China Sovereign CDS Spread," which assesses the 20-day differential of CDS spreads. A positive differential scored -1 this week [44][45]. The "Overseas Risk Aversion Index" evaluates the 20-day differential of Citi RAI Index. A positive differential scored -1 this week [46][47] - Technical factors include "Price Trend," which uses moving average distances (120/240 days) to assess market trends and strength. This week, it scored 1, indicating a positive trend [49][50]. The "New Highs and Lows" metric evaluates the difference between new highs and lows among index constituents over the past year. A positive difference scored -1 this week [51][53] - Crowding metrics include "Option Implied Premium," derived from the implied premium in options markets. A positive signal scored -1 this week [55][59]. The "Option VIX Index" measures implied volatility expectations. A positive signal scored 1 this week [56][57]. The "Option SKEW Index" evaluates implied skewness in options markets. A positive signal scored -1 this week [60][62]. The "Convertible Bond Pricing Deviation" measures the deviation of convertible bond prices from model estimates, standardized over three years. A positive deviation scored -1 this week [63][64] - Composite timing score for this week is -0.30, indicating a neutral-to-bearish outlook [6][8][9]