外汇期货周度报告：风险偏好波动回升，美元走向震荡-20260208

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core View of the Report - The market risk preference fluctuates and rebounds. The stock market mostly rises, bond yields mostly rise slightly, and the US bond yield slightly drops to 4.21%. The US dollar index rises by 0.66% to 97.6, non - US currencies show mixed performance, the gold price rises by 1.4% to $4,964 per ounce, the VIX index rebounds to 17.7, the spot commodity index falls, and Brent crude oil drops by 2.3% to $71 per barrel [1][5][9] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk preference wavers. Most stock markets rise, most bond yields rise slightly, and the US bond yield slightly drops to 4.21%. The US dollar index rises by 0.66% to 97.6, non - US currencies show mixed performance, the gold price rises by 1.4% to $4,964 per ounce, the VIX index rebounds to 17.7, the spot commodity index falls, and Brent crude oil drops by 2.3% to $71 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, while the US and A - share markets fall. The S&P 500 index drops by 0.1%, the Shanghai Composite Index drops by 1.27%, the Hang Seng Index drops by 3.02%, and the Nikkei 225 index rises by 1.75%. The stock market is gradually digesting the negative impact of Kevin Warsh's potential election as the Fed Chairman, with weak overall sentiment. Tech company earnings reports have an increasing impact on the market. Geopolitical risks cool marginally. The Fed is in a wait - and - see stage, and the US stock market is in the earnings season with potential for increased volatility. Economic data is mixed, and the domestic stock market is expected to be volatile [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise slightly, and the 10 - year US bond yield slightly drops to 4.21%. The US bond yield stops falling and rebounds due to the unchanged US fiscal refinancing scale. Developed - country bond yields are prone to rise. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly drops to 1.808%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverts and slightly drops to 239bp. The domestic bond market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival [14][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rises by 0.66% to 97.6, and non - US currencies show mixed performance. The offshore RMB rises by 0.41%, the euro drops by 0.31%, the pound drops by 0.55%, the yen drops by 1.58%, the Swiss franc drops by 0.39%, the Canadian dollar, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Indian rupee fall, while the Australian dollar, South African rand, Brazilian real, and Mexican peso rise [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rises by 1.4% to $4,964 per ounce, and the VIX index rebounds to 17.7. Brent crude oil drops by 2.3% to $71 per barrel. The spot commodity index falls. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals correct, and commodities are under short - term pressure and expected to be volatile [29][30][31] 3. Hotspot Tracking - Market risk preference fluctuates and rebounds. The latest ISM manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations, but the US ADP employment is below expectations, and the labor market shows a weakening trend. The market short - term trades a recession - related liquidity withdrawal scenario, but the risk preference stabilizes on Friday. Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, and the US dollar index may peak in the short term [32][34][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: China's December financial data to be released; Tuesday: US December retail sales; Wednesday: China's January CPI and PPI, US January non - farm payrolls; Thursday: US January PPI and initial jobless claims; Friday: US January CPI [36]