南华国债周报：当“避险资产”成为风险本身-20260208

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is not bearish recently. Even without direct incremental marginal drivers like reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts, there is a high possibility that interest rates will break through technically and move downward [3] - The recent asset price fluctuations reflect the loosening of the previous extreme narratives. Although long - term narratives such as the weakening of the US dollar credit, the reconstruction of the global trade pattern, and the development of social productivity driven by AI capital expenditure remain valid, asset prices may experience a phased reversal due to minor marginal variables when the market structure becomes extreme [4] - Due to the sudden outbreak of the Venezuela event and the Greenland dispute, the safety of US dollar assets has declined. The prices of resources and precious metals have been pushed up, but the rapid price increase and the inflated speculative nature have made "safe - haven assets" less safe. In the short term, A - bonds with historically low volatility may be better safe - haven assets, which is the core reason for the strength of the bond market recently [5] - The strategy is to hold long positions. As the contract roll - over time approaches, one can move positions to the 06 contract in advance [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Views - The bond market is not bearish recently, and there is a high possibility of an interest rate downward technical breakthrough [3] Recent Concerns - A - share adjustment, local two - sessions, and geopolitical event changes [4] - The essence of recent asset price fluctuations is the loosening of extreme narratives. Long - term narratives are still valid, but asset prices may reverse due to marginal variables [4] - The safety of US dollar assets has declined, and the prices of resources and precious metals have risen. However, "safe - haven assets" are less safe, and A - bonds may be better short - term safe - haven assets [5] Strategy Focus - Hold long positions and move positions to the 06 contract in advance as the roll - over time approaches [6] This Week's Concerns - Domestic macro: The situation of local two - sessions and the start time of Shanghai's second - hand housing acquisition [7] - Monetary policy: The central bank launched 14 - day reverse repurchase, and the net investment of 3M - term repurchase was 1 billion [7] - Overseas macro: US employment data has been consistently weaker than expected [8] - Geopolitical: The geopolitical environment has generally improved, with the US and Iran holding talks, India compromising with the US for low tariffs, and video and phone calls between Chinese and Russian, and Chinese and US leaders on the same day [9] Data Statistics - Futures data: 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had positive weekly price changes, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the highest increase of 0.63% for the TL2603 contract [15] - Spread data: The cross - period spreads of T2603 - T2606, TF2603 - TF2606, and TS2603 - TS2606 all decreased. The cross - variety spreads of 2TS - T increased by 0.081, 2TF - T decreased by 0.005, and TS - TF increased by 0.043 [15] - Spot bond yields: The yields of most treasury and national development bonds decreased, with the 30 - year treasury bond yield decreasing by 4.00 BP and the 30 - year national development bond yield decreasing by 3.73 BP [15] - Funding rates: The bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates (DR001, DR007, DR014) and SHIBOR rates (SHIBOR1M, SHIBOR3M) all decreased [15]