债市微观结构跟踪：商品比价分位值回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" reading remained flat at 57% this period. Various indicators showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 30% [3][15][19] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" reading was basically flat at 57%. The full - market turnover rate and policy interest rate differential percentile increased by 18 and 15 percentage points respectively. The percentile of indicators such as 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund's ultra - long bond purchase volume, and money tightness expectation rebounded slightly. Meanwhile, the allocation disk strength, TL/T long - short ratio, listed company's wealth management purchase volume, and commodity price ratio percentile decreased by 16, 9, 6, and 6 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion include 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, TL/T long - short ratio, institutional leverage, and bond fund's profit - taking pressure [3][15] 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 30%. Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased by 6 (30% in proportion), the number of indicators in the neutral range increased to 9 (45% in proportion), and the number of indicators in the cold range decreased to 5 (25% in proportion). The allocation disk strength percentile dropped by 16 percentage points, moving from the over - heated range to the neutral range [4][19] 3.2.1. Full - market Turnover Rate Increase - In the trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 67%, the proportion of indicators in the neutral range remained at 33%, and the proportion of indicators in the cold range remained at 0%. The full - market turnover rate percentile continued to rise by 15 percentage points to 66%, and the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile rose by 4 percentage points to 99% [6][22] 3.2.2. Slight Decline in Allocation Disk Strength - Among the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 13%, the proportion of indicators in the neutral range increased to 38%, and the proportion of indicators in the cold range decreased to 50%. The allocation disk strength percentile decreased by 16 percentage points to 69%, moving from the over - heated range to the neutral range [7][25] 3.2.3. Continued Narrowing of Policy Interest Rate Differential - The yield of 3 - year Treasury bonds continued to decline, corresponding to a narrowing of the policy interest rate differential by 2bp to - 2bp, and the corresponding percentile continued to rise by 12 percentage points to 87%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread and the spread between Agricultural Development Bank and China Development Bank bonds remained the same as the previous period. The IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrowed slightly by 1bp to - 1bp. The average spread of the three remained at 17bp, and its percentile rose slightly by 2 percentage points to 63%, still in the neutral range [8][32] 3.2.4. Decline in Commodity Price Ratio Percentile - Among the price ratio - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the cold range remained at 75%, and the proportion of indicators in the neutral range remained at 25%. The stock - bond and real estate price ratio percentiles increased by 4 and 2 percentage points to 61% and 53% respectively, while the commodity price ratio percentile decreased by 6 percentage points [9][35]