绝对价格高位震荡，关注eb利润缩：BZ&EB周报-20260208

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The absolute price of pure benzene and styrene is oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to the contraction of EB profit. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, which stimulates the return of zombie capacity. The restart progress of key plants after the Spring Festival has a significant impact on the post - festival balance sheet. The situation of pure benzene will gradually improve after the second quarter, and it is difficult for China's pure benzene imports to increase in 2026. Recently, focus on the contraction of EB profit and the opportunity of PX - EB [3][68]. - The EB processing fee has reached a phased peak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - term profit contraction [3][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Pure Benzene Domestic Supply: In December, 110,000 tons of pure benzene plants were under maintenance, and the maintenance volume in January remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Major plants with large - scale maintenance include Sinochem Quanzhou, LIDONG, and Zhejiang Petrochemical. Some Shandong local refineries will increase their production loads after solving the quota problem to make up for part of the production loss. In January, attention should be paid to the increase in pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang plant [2][67]. - Pure Benzene Import Supply: Although the overseas inventory pressure is still high, the overall import volume has decreased. The average monthly import volume of pure benzene from January to March 2026 is about 430,000 tons. The US - South Korea tariff still exists, but the US - Asia aromatics logistics may continue after the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact of 30,000 - 40,000 tons of pure benzene per month [2][67]. Demand - Styrene: In December, 85,000 tons of styrene plants were under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January. After December, the plant operation gradually resumed, and attention should be paid to the increase in production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical plant. The demand for the three downstream products of styrene (3S) exceeded expectations. After the market rose rapidly last week, downstream factories entered the restocking cycle [3][68]. - Caprolactam: Negative feedback in CPL has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. It is estimated that 40,000 tons of plants will be under maintenance in December and 60,000 tons in January, mainly in Fujian Yongrong, Tianchen, Hualu Hengsheng, Xuyang Cangzhou, etc. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of plants [3][68]. - Phenol: The operation rate is gradually rising. In December, 30,000 tons of plants were under maintenance, and 10,000 tons in January. The commissioning of the new Shandong Ruilin plant may be postponed [3][68]. - Aniline: In December, 70,000 tons of aniline plants were under maintenance, mainly including Ningbo Wanhua, Shanghai Covestro, and Chongqing Basf, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation rate in January may be lower than expected [3][68]. Valuation - Absolute Price Valuation: Based on the crude oil price of $70 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3][68]. Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: The market will mainly oscillate before the Spring Festival [3][68]. - Cross - Variety Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of bottom - fishing PX - EB, that is, buy BZ and short EB [3][68].