螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The cost support for steel prices has weakened, leading to a slight decline in steel prices [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment - The "Three Red Lines" constraints on the real estate market have been relaxed, improving market expectations and creating a generally favorable macro - environment [5][6] - Policy expectations have resurfaced, with the government emphasizing the governance of low - price and disorderly competition in enterprises and promoting the improvement of product quality [8] 3.2 Black Industry Chain - Steel mills' winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, and high iron ore inventories are suppressing the futures price. The supply and demand of steel are both weak, and the inventory is healthy, but the decline in cost may drag down steel prices slightly [5][9][11] - The upward drive for black commodities depends on cost - driven factors such as policy - restricted coal supply contraction or sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply. Relying on steel demand alone cannot form a smooth positive feedback market [5] - The downward drive is the release of high - inventory liquidity of iron ore, which will lead to the decline of the spot market and then the futures market [5] 3.3 Rebar Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3220 (-30) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price was 3077 (-51) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was 143 (+21) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 47 (+2) yuan/ton [18] - The rebar market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [14] 3.3.2 Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low [22] - It is the traditional off - season, and rebar demand has declined [23] 3.3.3 MS Weekly Data - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak, and the inventory is healthy [24] - The production and inventory of long - and short - process rebar show certain seasonal characteristics [25][27] 3.3.4 Production Profit - Last week, the rebar spot profit was 136 (+7) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 134 (+5) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 32 (-68) yuan/ton [31] 3.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3250 (-20) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract futures price was 3251 (-37) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 1 (+17) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 18 (+5) yuan/ton [38] - The hot - rolled coil market also shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [34] 3.4.2 Demand - It is the traditional off - season, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has declined. However, the profit window for exports has opened, leading to a rebound in exports [39][40] 3.4.3 MS Weekly Data - The inventory of hot - rolled coils has been successfully reduced, and the production remains at a low level [46][47] 3.4.4 Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 3 (+17) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 158 (+19) yuan/ton [52] 3.5 Variety Regional Differences - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coils, hot - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates [58][59][61][62][64] 3.6 Cold - Rolled and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presents the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates [65][66]