镍：节前资金离场冲击，中线矛盾仍在印尼不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the short - term is affected by the departure of pre - holiday funds, and the mid - line contradiction lies in Indonesian policies. The market is mainly trading on the expectation of Indonesian nickel ore policies, while the fundamentals mainly limit the price elasticity. There is a possibility of a secondary price increase after the Spring Festival if the approval volume by March is lower than expected [4][5]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward. The overall trend follows that of nickel and other non - ferrous metals. The uncertainty is increased by news such as Indonesian quotas, associated product pricing, and mining violation fines. The market's directional breakthrough depends on the dynamics of Indonesian quota policies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Key Events - Quota Event: Indonesia is still in the process of approving nickel ore quotas, with a target of 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. Some enterprises have obtained quotas, but the amount is currently lower than in previous years. There are differences in expectations between the secondary market and the industry regarding Indonesian policies, leading to a game on the futures market. If the annual target quota is implemented, it may reverse the oversupply expectation to a shortage [1]. - Associated Mineral Event: Indonesia intends to include associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. This may increase the ore - purchasing cost of the smelting end by about 5% - 10%. However, if the increased cost can be passed on to downstream cobalt products, the impact on the nickel wet - process cost will be limited [2]. - Conflict Event: Multiple enterprises in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegally occupying forest land. The negotiation process of the fines is worthy of attention as it may indirectly lead to higher ore prices and smelting costs. There are also issues of monopoly in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park, indicating stricter supervision [2]. - Other Events: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel mining business but later resumed normal operations after obtaining partial mining quotas. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor leading enterprises and wet - process projects [3]. Market Views - Shanghai Nickel: The departure of pre - holiday funds has an impact. The macro - environment has cooled the sentiment of non - ferrous metals. The market risk preference may decrease, and there is a risk of further capital withdrawal. The current fundamentals of nickel are not strong, with high inventory and marginal inventory accumulation. The industry tends to sell at high prices for hedging. The price is mainly determined by the expectation of Indonesian nickel ore policies. There is a possibility of a price increase after the festival if the policy approval is not as expected [4][5]. - Stainless Steel: The overall trend follows that of nickel and other non - ferrous metals. The uncertainty is increased by various news. If the quota policy is implemented, it may support ferronickel. The cost of stainless steel has increased, and the cost support center has shifted upward. In February, the production schedule has decreased, and there is a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation. The market needs to focus on the dynamics of Indonesian quota policies [6]. Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: On February 6, China's social inventory increased by 1191 tons to 70429 tons, with an increase in warehouse receipt inventory and a decrease in spot inventory. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 1002 tons to 285282 tons [7]. - New Energy: On February 6, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained the same month - on - month. The precursor inventory increased by 0.2 days to 13.3 days, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.3 days to 7.2 days [7]. - Ferronickel - Stainless Steel: On February 5, the full - industrial - chain inventory of SMM ferronickel decreased by 11% month - on - month to 11.9 million metal tons. In January, the stainless steel factory inventory was 1.5 million tons, with a year - on - month and month - on - month increase of 4% and 1% respectively. On February 5, the stainless steel social inventory was 964960 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.29% [7]. Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain products through the OSS platform [8]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026 [8]. - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [8]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [10]. - Multiple enterprises in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegally occupying forest land, and the final fine amount may be lower than the initial estimate [10]. - Indonesia will adjust the 2026 nickel ore production quota according to industry demand, with the production possibly ranging from 250 million to 260 million tons [10]. - The IMIP park in Indonesia is facing issues of monopoly in port storage and logistics and is in negotiation [10]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [11]. - Indonesia has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget [11]. - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [11]. - Indonesia's investment department reported that a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group has not submitted an investment activity report [12]. Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel The report provides data on futures prices, trading volumes, product prices, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel, including the closing prices, trading volumes of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, prices of various nickel and stainless steel products, and relevant spreads [15].