国泰君安期货·能源化工尿素周度报告-20260208

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report - Report Date: February 8, 2026 - Analyst: Yang Honghan - Company: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short term, urea prices are expected to remain stable with support before the Spring Festival, driven by improved spot trading due to pre - holiday order collection and strong expectations for agricultural demand after the Spring Festival. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, mainly a policy - related pressure line, while the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,750 - 1,760 yuan/ton, supported by strong expectations for the 2026 agricultural demand peak season [2][4]. 3. Summary by Section Supply - Capacity: The expansion of urea production capacity continued in 2025. The total new production capacity in 2024 was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025 it was 6.64 million tons. In 2026, an additional 6.51 million tons of new capacity is expected, mainly from companies such as Gansu Jingyuan Liuhua (Phase II), Hubei Yingcheng (Yuntu), and Ordos Yiding [25]. - Production: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, China's urea production was 1.4692 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.98% or 14,310 tons. Next week, production is expected to reach 1.51 - 1.52 million tons, with an expected increase in the growth rate. The production profit is around the break - even point, and daily production remains at a high level [2][28]. - Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. For example, in Shanxi, the cash - flow cost and full cost of fixed - bed plants have been calculated, and the cost has shown certain stability in recent days [30]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state [35]. - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. Historical data shows fluctuations in monthly import and export volumes over the years [41]. Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. Different regions have different demand peaks based on crop - growing seasons. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. For example, by 2025, the cumulative construction of high - standard farmland is expected to reach 1.075 billion mu, with an additional 75 million mu compared to 2022 [47][50]. - Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The capacity utilization rate, production cost, and production profit of compound fertilizers in China show certain trends over time. The factory inventory of 32 chemical enterprises also fluctuates [54][56][57]. - Melamine: The production profit, market price, production volume, and capacity utilization rate of melamine in Shandong and China have their own trends [58][59][60]. - Real Estate and Panels: The demand for panels in the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports show resilience [61]. Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, China's urea port sample inventory was 165,000 tons, a 14.58% increase from the previous period. As of February 4, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918,500 tons, a 2.79% decrease from the previous week. Overall, spot trading remains moderately active, and urea inventory is expected to enter a phase of volatile adjustment with a slower de - stocking rate [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, there is support, and in the medium term, it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips after observing the spot trading volume. The upper pressure level for the 05 contract is 1,830 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the static support level below is 1,750 - 1,760 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: In the medium term, it is recommended to go long on the positive spread. - Inter - commodity: No strategy provided for now [5].