豆油：南美题材不足，区间震荡调整：棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，宏观扰动为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil had a short - term smooth upward window in Q1 after nearly two months of bottom - building. Before new negative news emerges, the bullish sentiment in Q1 is strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure at previous highs and the risk of decline due to the ebb of pre - holiday macro sentiment. Also, pay attention to the price correction after Ramadan. If a rapid pressure - release period starts in late March, it may bottom out again and enter a new stable and upward stage [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybean oil will reach a value potential of 56 - 60 cents as policies are gradually implemented, but fluctuations caused by the EPA's inconsistent news should be noted. Currently, there is a lack of hot topics for soybean - related speculation in South America in February. Unilateral soybean oil is temporarily adjusted with palm oil and international oil prices, and beware of the spot sentiment brought by the post - holiday stocking boom [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The previous rise was mainly driven by external sentiment and pre - holiday stocking themes. With the ebb of the macro situation and geopolitical easing, palm oil faced resistance at the previous high and fell. The palm oil 05 contract dropped 2.74% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: There was a lack of South American weather speculation. Even though there was strong news of Sino - US purchases, the upward drive for US soybeans was limited. It mainly adjusted with the oil and fat sector, and the soybean oil 05 contract dropped 2.50% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm oil - The current rise is due to multiple factors such as macro funds' attention to the commodity cycle rotation, the digestion of the bearish sentiment of B50, good de - stocking progress indicated by high - frequency production and export data in Malaysia, strong expectations of Indonesia's tax increase, pre - Ramadan stocking, and the rise in energy prices. If Malaysia's production in February is less than 1.4 million tons, there will be a rapid de - stocking in reality [2]. - Malaysia's inventory in January is likely to drop to around 2.85 - 2.90 million tons. New trend - setting negative news requires Malaysia's production in February to be above 1.5 million tons. After Ramadan, there may be a rapid production increase period. Although bulls still have time to push up prices before the holiday and during Ramadan, pay attention to the correction risk in March [2]. - The improvement of the palm oil's fundamentals is slow, and there is almost no new negative news. Before the holiday, there is more trading thinking of speculating on unfalsifiable themes with the rise in energy prices. The US biodiesel policy is expected to be introduced in March, and US soybean oil has the potential to exceed 56 cents again after the policy is implemented. From the rainfall pattern last year, Malaysia's production from April to May should decline year - on - year, which is a potential driving factor [2]. Soybean oil - US soybean oil will achieve its value potential of 56 - 60 cents as 45Z, RVO, and redistribution are gradually implemented, but fluctuations caused by the EPA's inconsistent news should be noted [4]. - In terms of US soybeans, the growth of Brazilian soybeans is generally good, and the risk of drought in the core production areas of Argentina has been resolved. There is a lack of hot topics for soybean - related speculation in February. According to the current shipping schedule, the gap in soybean arrivals in China from March to April is not large. However, the domestic shutdown time during the Spring Festival holiday is relatively long, and the downstream's pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm is not strong. Be wary of the spot sentiment brought by the post - holiday stocking boom. Unilateral soybean oil is temporarily adjusted with palm oil and international oil prices [4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Palm oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 9,234 yuan/ton, the highest price was 9,316 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,964 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,026 yuan/ton, and the decline was 2.74%. The trading volume was 2,224,522 lots, a decrease of 618,305 lots, and the open interest was 444,122 lots, a decrease of 48,387 lots [7]. - Soybean oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 8,278 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,326 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,052 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,102 yuan/ton, and the decline was 2.50%. The trading volume was 2,842,827 lots, a decrease of 355,011 lots, and the open interest was 686,836 lots, a decrease of 136,226 lots [7]. - Other data such as rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil main continuous contracts are also provided in the table, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, and their changes, as well as price differences and warehouse receipts data [7]. 3.4 Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - Malaysia's palm oil production in January decreased by nearly 15%, and the inventory in January is likely to drop to around 2.85 million tons [9]. - Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a neutral - to - wide level. The India - Malaysia price difference has recently risen rapidly. The price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has stabilized and rebounded, and Indonesia's refining profit is at a high level [11]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports from February 1 - 5 were 235,190 tons, a decrease of 1.87% compared with the same period last month. The POGO price difference is almost flat [11]. - India's palm oil import profit has deteriorated and is still lower than that of sunflower oil. The India - Malaysia CNF price difference of soybean and palm oil has declined [13]. - The basis of palm oil (in South China) for the 05 contract is - 60, and the basis of soybean oil (in Jiangsu) has weakened oscillatingly [13]. - The cumulative import volume of palm oil in the EU in 2026 has decreased by 1 million tons, and the cumulative import volume of the four major oils and fats in the EU in 2026 has decreased by 1 million tons [14].