碳酸锂：宏观因素影响较大，盘面宽幅震荡，但供需紧张使得下方空间不深

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices have significantly declined and adjusted, and the basis has strengthened. However, the core logic of the tight real - supply and demand remains unchanged. The lithium price is expected to be supported at the bottom due to downstream replenishment willingness, and the market should pay attention to variables such as macro - factors. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 132,920 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 15,280 yuan/ton; the 2607 contract closed at 133,620 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 15,240 yuan/ton. The spot price dropped 26,000 yuan/ton week - on - week to 134,500 yuan/ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2605 contract) weakened by 4,920 yuan/ton to - 6,700 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was - 1,350 yuan/ton, strengthening by 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2605 - 2607 contracts was - 700 yuan/ton, strengthening by 40 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - Domestic lithium salt factories are gradually entering the seasonal maintenance phase, and the overseas mine - end costs have significantly increased. In January, Chile exported 8 ships of lithium salt, with a total lithium salt volume of 30,000 tons (actual export of 53,000 tons, including 25,000 tons of lithium sulfate bulk cargo). The domestic weekly lithium carbonate production was 20,744 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from last week. The Australian ore shipment volume was 84,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons month - on - month, and the Chilean lithium salt shipment volume was 8,760 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons month - on - month [2] 3.2.2 Demand - Short - term demand is strong, and the power terminal is waiting for recovery. The actual production reduction of cathode material factories is limited, and the output is expected to remain at a high level. In 2025, the newly installed capacity of new energy storage projects was 62.24GW/183GWh, a year - on - year increase of 47%/80%. Last week, the capacity price policy was introduced. In the energy storage segment, the weekly market had 29 project wins, with a total winning scale of 2.03GW/5.35GWh, a month - on - month increase of 52.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1865% [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate continued to destock, with the industry inventory at 105,463 tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons from last week, and the inventory was transferred downstream. This period, 3,576 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 33,787 lots [3] 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Unilateral - High - level volatility is expected, and the price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [5] 3.3.2 Inter - period - Considering that the downstream pre - holiday replenishment rhythm is coming to an end, long - short spreads should take profit opportunistically [5] 3.3.3 Hedging - With large price fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to use options tools to hedge opportunistically [5]