花生：轻仓过节

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peanut spot market is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, trading activities will gradually end, and prices are likely to transition smoothly. After the festival, there will be some restocking demand, but the market may face short - term pressure due to factors such as high inventory and potential imports [1][2] - The peanut futures market will be strong in the short - term following the trend of oils and fats. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Peanut Market Review - Spot Market: As of February 5, the average price of national common peanuts was 8,027 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (0.11%) from January 29. Some producers and grain dealers were not active in selling, resulting in a low supply. Downstream markets and food companies were stocking up before the festival, while the operating rate of oil mills declined and oilseed demand decreased [1] - Futures Market: In the week of February 6, peanut futures rose. The highest price of the main peanut contract (PK2605) was 7,936 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7,874 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,918 yuan/ton, compared with 7,906 yuan/ton the previous week [1] 3.2 Peanut Market Outlook - Before the Spring Festival: Peanut spot prices will remain stable, with trading gradually coming to a halt as most traders have completed stocking up [2] - After the Spring Festival: There will be restocking demand, but the market may face pressure due to factors such as high residual inventory in production areas, short selling time after the festival, and potential imports from Senegal. Attention should be paid to the purchasing strategies of oil mills and the arrival of imported peanuts [2] 3.3 Basis and Spread - The report presents the basis of Henan Baisha peanuts and Xingcheng Xiaoriben peanuts from 2021 - 2026, as well as the 11 - 1 spread (discontinued) and 3 - 5 spread [6][7] 3.4 Price Data - The price of Baisha peanuts in Zhumadian, Henan this week was basically the same as last week [11] 3.5 Supply - The arrival volume of 6 oilseed peanut markets was about 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 9.52% from last week but an increase of 104.74% compared with the same period last year. The arrival volume of 14 commercial peanut markets was about 0.7 million tons, an increase of 15.11% from last week and 561.32% compared with the same period last year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 1.41 million tons, an increase of 1.22% from last week and 211.34% compared with the same period last year [12] 3.6 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 3.85 million tons, a decrease of 28.54% from last week but an increase of 3,561.9% compared with the same period last year [19] - The mainstream price of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, basically stable. The downstream stocking demand improved slightly, but traders were cautious [19] - The mainstream price of peanut meal was 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton, with stable quotes. The demand was weak, and the market transaction was light [19] - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills was 44.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.18 yuan/ton from last week. It increased by 234.97 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year [19] - The comprehensive operating rate of sample enterprises was 46.19%, a decrease of 0.39% from last week but an increase of 45.86% compared with the same period last year [19] - The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 82,000 tons, a decrease of 0.85% from last week [20] 3.7 Inventory - The report shows the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills from different production seasons and years [23]