铅产业链周度报告-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no significant driving force. The price is expected to be in a volatile range of 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton. The total inventory of lead in five regions has increased, but the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The domestic lead spot premium has expanded [3]. - On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the spot import processing fee for lead concentrates with a 60% grade has been continuously decreasing. Many smelters in Hunan and Yunnan are planning or undergoing maintenance, and the production reduction of secondary lead due to increasing losses is on the rise. It is expected that the post - holiday resumption of work for secondary lead enterprises will be after the Lantern Festival. On the consumption side, the consumption of automotive batteries is weak, some enterprises'开工 rates have decreased significantly, and some large enterprises plan to gradually stop production for holidays. The lead - acid battery enterprises are starting to take holidays, logistics in some areas is gradually stagnant, the inventory of finished batteries is increasing, and the willingness to purchase raw lead ingots is low, resulting in a continuous decline in the battery enterprise's 开工 rate. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral strategy, considering the weak supply - demand pattern of the lead market, it is expected that the lead price will generally remain volatile. One can consider short - volatility operations. Also, due to the large losses in secondary lead, one can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips later [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, and Open Interest - Price and Spread: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,510 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.10%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,535 yuan/ton, with an overnight increase of 0.15%. The price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,033.5 dollars, with a weekly increase of 1.93%. The LME lead spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 50.67 dollars last Friday, down 4.8 dollars from the previous week. The bonded area lead premium was 97.5 dollars, up 2.5 dollars from the previous week. The Shanghai No. 1 lead spot premium was 25 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from the previous week. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead was 25 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan from the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 20 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan from the previous week [7]. - Inventory: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 35,805 tons, an increase of 6,387 tons from the previous week. The SHFE total lead inventory was 47,824 tons, an increase of 17,240 tons from the previous week. The social inventory was 40,400 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 232,850 tons, an increase of 27,275 tons from the previous week, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 6.80%, down 2.26% from the previous week [7]. - Transaction Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 50,420 lots, a decrease of 72,439 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 52,027 lots, a decrease of 4,453 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 5,987 lots, a decrease of 4,655 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrates, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - Lead Concentrates: The import volume, actual consumption, and production of lead concentrates from 2021 - 2025 are presented in the report. The import processing fee (TC) and domestic TC of lead concentrates are also provided, and the lead smelting profit (processing) shows fluctuations over the years. The lead concentrate 开工 rate from 2021 - 2026 is also shown [23][25][26]. - Primary and Secondary Lead: The production and 开工 rate of primary lead and secondary lead from 2021 - 2026 are provided. The production of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead are presented in a time - series graph. The production of silver by - products from primary lead smelting is also shown [29][30]. - Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises from 2021 - 2026 is presented. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead are also provided [32][33][34]. - Import and Export: The net import of refined lead, monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, import profit and loss of lead, and lead ingot export volume from 2021 - 2025 are presented [35]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users - Batteries: The 开工 rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries from 2021 - 2025 are presented [39]. - Consumption and End - Users: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 - 2025 are presented [41].