铜产业链周度报告-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of copper are weak, but the long - term fundamentals are good, and the price is expected to be supported. The US macro - economy presents a mixed situation. Although the strong labor market and high core inflation reduce the market's expectation of the Fed's short - term sharp interest rate cut, the weak performance of the manufacturing PMI in some regions and concerns about economic long - term resilience and industrial security lead the market to enter a wait - and - see mode. Meanwhile, the huge investment in AI computing power centers and the development of new energy will support copper demand in the long run, but the current inventory increase indicates weak short - term fundamentals. It is recommended that investors maintain the idea of buying on dips and consider using option strategies to hedge risks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME and COMEX copper decreased, while that of SHFE and INE copper increased. The LME copper price volatility is around 18%, and the Shanghai copper volatility reaches about 44%, slightly rising compared with the previous week [13]. - Term Spread: The term structure of Shanghai copper is weak, and the spot discount of LME copper has narrowed. The spread between Shanghai copper 02 - 03 contracts on February 6 was - 290 yuan/ton, narrowing from - 510 yuan/ton on January 30; the LME 0 - 3 discount on February 6 was 70.95 US dollars/ton, narrowing from 89.88 US dollars/ton on January 30; the near - end C structure of COMEX copper has expanded [17]. - Position: The positions of SHFE, LME, and INE copper have decreased. The position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 73,600 lots to 583,900 lots [18]. - Fund and Industry Positions: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased. The net short position of LME commercial enterprises decreased from 55,200 lots on January 23 to 46,900 lots on January 30; the net long position of CFTC non - commercial decreased from 48,400 lots on January 27 to 47,800 lots on February 3 [24]. - Spot Premium and Discount: The domestic copper spot has changed from discount to premium, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has expanded. The domestic copper spot changed from a discount of 150 yuan/ton on January 30 to a premium of 40 yuan/ton on February 6; the Yangshan Port copper premium rose from 27 US dollars/ton on January 30 to 37 US dollars/ton on February 6 [31]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in social inventory. The global total copper inventory increased from 1.0827 million tons on January 29 to 1.1093 million tons on February 5; the domestic social inventory increased from 322,800 tons on January 29 to 335,800 tons on February 5; the bonded area inventory decreased from 71,900 tons on January 29 to 69,400 tons on February 5; the COMEX inventory increased from 575,500 short tons on January 30 to 589,100 short tons on February 6; the LME copper inventory increased from 175,000 tons on January 30 to 183,300 tons on February 6 [35]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper fluctuates, and that of Shanghai copper is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 03 contract has declined and is at a relatively low level in the same period of history; the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper fluctuates, indicating a lack of driving logic for overseas spot [36]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrate has increased year - on - year, and the processing fee has been continuously weak. In December 2025, China's import of copper ore and its concentrates was 2.7043 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7.05% and a year - on - year increase of 7.24%. The port inventory of copper concentrate decreased from 523,000 tons on January 30 to 442,000 tons on February 6; the smelting loss increased from 2,280 yuan/ton on January 30 to 2,348 yuan/ton on February 6 [40]. - Recycled Copper: The import volume of recycled copper has increased year - on - year, and the domestic production has increased significantly year - on - year. In December, the import of recycled copper was 239,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.88%; in September, the domestic production of recycled copper was 97,700 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The price difference between refined and recycled copper has narrowed, and the import loss of recycled copper has turned into profit [41][46]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has increased month - on - month, and the processing fee has rebounded. In December, the import of blister copper was 61,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.15%. In January, the blister copper processing fee rebounded, with the southern processing fee at 2,050 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton [50]. - Refined Copper: The production of refined copper has increased year - on - year, the import has decreased, and the import loss of copper spot has narrowed. In January, the domestic production of refined copper was 1.1793 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. It is estimated that the cumulative production from January to February was 2.3228 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.10%. In December, the import of refined copper was 260,200 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 29.76%. In December, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,400 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 21.89%. The import loss of copper spot narrowed from 681.07 yuan/ton on January 30 to 320.64 yuan/ton on February 6 [53]. 3.3 Demand End - 开工率: The operating rate of copper product enterprises in January rebounded month - on - month. In January, the operating rates of copper tubes and copper plates and foils rebounded and were higher than the same period last year. In the week of February 5, the operating rate of wire and cable rebounded marginally [57]. - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the processing fee of copper tubes has rebounded. As of February 6, the processing fee of copper rods for the power industry in East China was 490 yuan/ton, higher than 260 yuan/ton on January 30; on February 6, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fee of R410A special copper tubes was 5,140 yuan/ton, higher than 5,060 yuan/ton on January 30; the processing fees of copper plates and lithium - ion copper foils remained stable at a low level [62]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. In January, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history; the weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable rebounded marginally [63]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods is at a high level, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has decreased. In January, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history; the weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable decreased [66]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment remains an important support. The cumulative domestic copper consumption from January to December was 15.8257 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.88%; the apparent consumption from January to November was 15.9903 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy industries are important supports for copper consumption. The growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down, with the cumulative power grid investment from January to December being 635.002 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.11% [74]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In December, the domestic air - conditioner production was 14.782 million units, with a year - on - year decrease of 18.66%; in December, the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.718 million units, with a year - on - year increase of 12.29% [75].