20260208：棉花：预计维持震荡，谨慎持仓过节

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures are under pressure in the near - term, lacking upward drivers. It's necessary to wait for a phased support level. The domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a sideways trend before the Spring Festival, and investors are advised to hold positions cautiously during the holiday [1][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - ICE cotton main contract: opening price 62.97, highest price 63.21, lowest price 60.90, closing price 61.07, down 2.04, down 3.23%, trading volume 202,464 lots, volume change 25,620 lots, open interest 154,685 lots, open interest change - 23,301 lots - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opening price 14,660, highest price 14,780, lowest price 14,500, closing price 14,580, down 90, down 0.61%, trading volume 1,608,018 lots, volume change - 563,083 lots, open interest 700,974 lots, open interest change - 52,304 lots - Cotton yarn main contract: opening price 20,475, highest price 20,630, lowest price 20,340, closing price 20,405, down 90, down 0.44%, trading volume 29,019 lots, volume change - 27,746 lots, open interest 11,165 lots, open interest change 5,276 lots [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: pressured by a significant increase in warehouse receipts, also affected by a stronger US dollar and a decline in risk appetite in the commodity market. The weekly US cotton export data is okay, but it's not enough to make the USDA adjust its annual export forecast, so the next USDA monthly supply - demand report is expected to have little change. As of the week of January 29, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 56,700 tons, up 23% month - on - month and down 5% from the four - week average; 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 26,100 tons; 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 53,400 tons, down 8% month - on - month and up 25% from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.8296 million tons, accounting for 70% of the annual forecasted total export volume; the cumulative export shipments were 906,100 tons, accounting for 50% of the total annual contract volume [5] - India: reached a tax - reduction agreement with the US. The US reduced the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and removed the additional 25% tariff related to the purchase of Russian oil. India promised to stop purchasing Russian oil, reduce trade barriers for US goods, and increase imports from the US [6] - Brazil: cotton sowing progress is normal, and exports decreased in January. As of the week of January 30, the sowing progress in Mato Grosso state reached about 68% of the planned total area, up nearly 20 percentage points. The IMEA predicts that the state's output this year will be 2.56 million tons, a decrease of about 15% from the previous season; the planting area is 1.42 million hectares, a decrease of 8%. In January 2026, Brazilian cotton exports were 317,000 tons, a 30% month - on - month and 24% year - on - year decrease. The top three importers were China (115,000 tons), Turkey (50,000 tons), and Bangladesh (46,000 tons) [7] - Pakistan: the demand for cotton imports is moderately released. The domestic cotton market trading has slowed down, and textile enterprises reject the price increase requirements of ginning mills. The focus has shifted to the preparation for new cotton planting. The cotton planting intention in Sindh province is significantly higher than that in Punjab province. Textile enterprises' purchases are mainly to meet the raw material needs in the second quarter, and they are picky in procurement [8] - Bangladesh: is conducting trade negotiations with the US and the EU. The textile mill association postponed the plan to suspend spinning production. The government needs 10 working days to evaluate solutions. The country is facing competition from India's trade agreement with the EU, and the strike in Chittagong has caused delays in customs clearance [9] - Turkey: textile mills are in poor operating conditions, and clothing exports have decreased. Textile mills face low income, high operating costs, and difficult financing. The knitting industry's operating rate is about 50%, and the denim industry's orders are stable but prices have not recovered. In December, raw cotton imports were about 69,000 tons, up 20% from November and 7% from the same period last year. In December, exports were 22,000 tons, basically the same as in November and down 39% from the same period last year. In December, the export value of knitted and woven clothing was $1.26 billion, down 4% from November and the same as the same period last year [10] - Southeast Asian textile industry operating rates: as of the week of February 6, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 69.5%, Vietnam's was 68.5%, and Pakistan's was 69.5% [11] 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices and transactions are basically stable. The domestic cotton futures and spot prices declined slightly. Low - basis spot locked - basis transactions were still relatively good, and some locked - basis spot had phased price - fixing after the decline of Zhengzhou cotton. The basis of cotton spot sales has slightly increased. As of February 6, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 10,575, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 1,185, totaling 11,760, equivalent to 493,920 tons [12] - Spinning mills are divided, and weaving enterprises are still in a general situation. The sales of pure cotton yarn are divided. Xinjiang spinning mills will maintain production during the Spring Festival, with high operating rates, and the 40S and above varieties sell well. Inland spinning mills are finishing work, with a decline in operating rates and an increase in inventory. The price of pure cotton yarn is basically stable. The all - cotton grey fabric market sales are coming to an end, with a decrease in production and operating rates. After the Spring Festival, orders can maintain short - term production, and weaving factories make just - in - time raw material inventory [13][14] 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, weaving mill yarn inventory, etc. [15][16][17][18] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are under pressure in the short - term, and it's necessary to wait for a phased support level. Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a sideways trend before the Spring Festival, and investors are advised to hold positions cautiously during the holiday [19]