原木周度报告-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, port arrivals are decreasing, and some traders are closing their warehouses, causing the spot price to be stable with a slight upward trend [3] - In the medium - term, supply will increase in February, demand will enter the Spring Festival off - season, and inventory is about to enter the accumulation stage. Log supply is expected to maintain a normal level according to the shipping schedule, while the weak new construction in the real estate sector on the demand side continues to drag down log demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - Short - term: Port arrivals decline, some traders close warehouses, and spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend [3] - Medium - term: Supply increases in February, demand enters the Spring Festival off - season, inventory accumulates. Log supply follows the shipping schedule, and real - estate new construction weakness drags down demand [3] 3.2 Spot Price Trends - For different tree species, specifications, and regions, most prices remained stable from 2026/1/16 to 2026/2/6. Only the 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 1.4% and the 5.9 - meter 20+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 1.4% compared to the previous week [7] 3.3 Supply: New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data - Multiple log shipments from various origins are expected to arrive at Chinese and South Korean ports between February 7 and February 21, 2026, with different carrying capacities [19] 3.4 Demand and Inventory: Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Average Shipment - Port inventory: In some ports like Lanshan Port, Xinminzhou, and Jiangdu Port, inventory increased compared to the previous week, while in Taicang Port, it decreased. For example, the total inventory in Lanshan Port increased by 2.7%, and in Xinminzhou, the total inventory increased by 20.6% [23] - Daily average shipment: The total shipment in some ports like Lanshan Port and Taicang Port increased compared to the previous week, while in Jiangdu Port, it decreased. For example, the total shipment in Lanshan Port increased by 8.0%, and in Jiangdu Port, it decreased by 60.0% [23] 3.5 Other Direct Price - Affecting Factors - Freight: The dry bulk BDI decreased by 10.5% compared to the previous week, the handy - sized BHSI increased by 3.2%, the crude oil BDTI decreased by 0.6%, and the SCFI composite index decreased by 3.8% [27] - Exchange rate: The USD/CNY decreased by 0.5%, and the USD/NZD decreased by 1.5% [27]