动力煤产业链周度报告-20260208

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Report Date: February 8, 2026 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Industry: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic thermal coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and coal prices before the Spring Festival are expected to remain stable. The upstream private small mines are gradually on holiday, leading to a tight supply in the production area. The port inventory is continuously decreasing, which boosts the market sentiment. However, the demand is weak due to the lack of cold wave and the decline of industrial electricity consumption. The reduction of Indonesian coal production mainly affects the spot market, and the impact on long - term contracts is limited. In the long - term, new energy will continue to replace thermal power, and coal demand will peak and decline during the 14th Five - Year Plan period. The supply side will shift from ensuring supply and increasing production to stabilizing production and prices, and coal prices will run between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long - term [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data Price - The market supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the price fluctuates within a narrow range before the Spring Festival. The origin price is relatively stable, with the Yulin 5800 - calorie index at 598.0 yuan/ton (up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Ordos 5500 - calorie index at 522.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the Datong 5500 - calorie index at 567.0 yuan/ton (down 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week). The port price has a small increase, with the Qinhuangdao Port 5500 - calorie price at 698.0 yuan/ton (up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week) and the 5000 - calorie price at 617.0 yuan/ton (up 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week). The import price also rises, with the CCI import 4700 index at 73.5 US dollars/ton (up 1.0 US dollars/ton week - on - week) and the CCI import 3800 index at 58.5 US dollars/ton (up 1.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week) [5][8]. Price (Overseas Coal) - The overseas market price shows a strong performance [9]. Supply - Domestic Production (Weekly) - Mines are gradually on holiday, and production is shrinking. The potential factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the exit of backward production capacity, the exit or conversion of uncompleted approved incremental production capacity, and the disposal of incremental production capacity that fails to fulfill coal - power contracts. From January 29 to February 4, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Sanxi region was 88.74%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points from the previous period. As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 87.5% (previous value: 88.3%) [14][15][17]. Supply - Domestic Production (Monthly) - In 2025, the national raw coal production was 483,178 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In December 2025, the national raw coal production was 43,703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. In terms of regions, Shanxi ranked first with a cumulative raw coal production of 130,454.5 tons (27% of the national total, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%), Inner Mongolia had a cumulative production of 128,639.8 tons (26.62% of the national total, a year - on - year decrease of 1%), and Shaanxi had a cumulative production of 80,461.7 tons (16.65% of the national total, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%) [18][23]. Supply - Import (Weekly) - As of January 30, the weekly arrival volume of thermal coal at major ports was 684 tons (previous value: 763 tons, year - on - year: 641 tons) [24]. Supply - Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import was 5,859.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The high import volume was due to the "rush to export" of overseas suppliers affected by the adjustment of Indonesia's export tariff policy and the advantage of overseas coal import due to the tightening of domestic supply and the decline of domestic coal prices at the end of the year. In 2026, Indonesia's coal export has been sluggish, with policy interference such as the slow approval of the RKAB, the planned production quota of about 600 million tons in 2026 (significantly lower than the actual production of 790 million tons in 2025), and the possible retroactive implementation of export tariff regulations [26][31]. Inventory - Mine - Fenwei data shows that the inventory at the origin has little change, while MS data shows a decline [33]. Inventory - Port - The middle and lower reaches maintain the rhythm of inventory reduction [39]. Transportation - The port inflow volume decreases, and the outflow volume increases [40]. 2. Demand Power Demand - Coastal Power Plants' Continuous Inventory - The coal consumption, supply, inventory, and available days of coastal eight - province power plants are presented in the report [41][42]. Power Demand - Temperature Rise in Central and Eastern Regions in the Next Ten Days - The temperature in the central and eastern regions will gradually rise, and the south will have more rainy weather [43][47]. Power Demand - 5% Growth in全社会 Electricity Consumption in 2025 - The electricity consumption of different industries in 2025 shows different growth rates [48][49]. Power Production - 1% Year - on - Year Decrease in Thermal Power Generation in 2025 - The power generation of different energy sources in 2025 is presented in the report [51][52]. Power Production - Less Precipitation in Southwest Region - The precipitation in Yunnan and Sichuan and the flow of the Three Gorges Reservoir are presented in the report [53][54][57]. Non - Electric - Weak Demand in Building Materials and Metallurgy, High - Level Operation of Chemical Coal Demand - The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.53% week - on - week, and the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased by 5.79 percentage points to 39.4% week - on - week. The production of chemical products such as PTA, PX, PVC, urea, methanol, and soda ash is at a high level [59][65].