国泰君安期货·能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the double - offset paper market remained stable. The double - offset paper futures fluctuated around 4050 yuan/ton with little overall change. As pre - holiday trading gradually becomes quiet, short positions can take profits and exit. It is advisable to wait and see before the holiday. The rapid strengthening of the 3 - 4 spread of double - offset paper this week is mainly due to the low liquidity of the 03 contract being greatly affected by capital behavior. The previous 3 - 4 reverse arbitrage positions can consider exiting at low prices. The market is bearish in general [50]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Industry News - The double - offset paper market remained stable this week. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper was 4725 yuan/ton, and that of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper was 4459 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous week. The factors affecting the price include stable quotes from paper mills at the beginning of the month, increased supply pressure due to the resumption of production of some shutdown production lines in South China, slow consumption downstream, and weakening cost support [5]. - As of Thursday this week, the inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 2.58% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate expanded by 2.05 percentage points compared with the previous week. The inventory of paper mills continued to accumulate due to weak procurement demand [5]. - The operating load rate of the double - offset paper industry this week was 55.09%, an increase of 3.09 percentage points from the previous week, and the trend changed from decline to increase. The resumption of production of a large - scale production line in Guangxi drove the recovery of the industry's operating level, but some small and medium - sized production lines in Shandong were shut down [5]. Market Trends - The price of double - offset paper remained stable. The average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper was 4725 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day and the previous week. The prices of various brands in different regions also remained unchanged [8][9]. - In terms of cost and profit, the pre - tax and after - tax gross profits increased slightly compared with the previous week. The closing prices of double - offset paper futures contracts OP2603 and OP2604 decreased, and the 1 - 3 spread increased. The basis in different markets also increased [9]. Supply and Demand Data Industry Capacity - The industry capacity has been continuously expanding, and the current industry is in an overall over - supply situation. In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [14][18]. Weekly Production and Operation - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry output was 192.5 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.1% [22]. Enterprise Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry sales volume was 195.6 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 389.8 thousand tons [28]. Import and Export - In December 2025, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 15 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 82 thousand tons [34]. Inventory Situation - In January 2026, the social inventory increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased slightly, indicating a transfer of inventory from upstream to downstream [39]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [45]. Market Judgment - This week's view on offset printing paper: Stop loss and exit short positions before the holiday. - Supply: The domestic double - offset paper industry output this week was 192.5 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.1%. In December, the import volume was about 15 thousand tons, maintaining a low level. - Demand: The domestic double - offset paper sales volume this week was 188.8 thousand tons. In December, the export volume was about 82 thousand tons. - View: The double - offset paper futures fluctuated around 4050 yuan/ton this week. As pre - holiday trading becomes quiet, short positions can take profits and exit. It is advisable to wait and see before the holiday. The rapid strengthening of the 3 - 4 spread is mainly due to the low liquidity of the 03 contract being affected by capital behavior. The previous 3 - 4 reverse arbitrage positions can consider exiting at low prices. - Valuation: The futures price is at a discount to the spot market quotation of third - party information providers, but may be higher than the self - pick - up prices of some traders. The enterprise production profit is low. - Strategy: Short positions can take profits at an appropriate time [50].