国泰君安期货·能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20260208

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The supply side is tightening as overseas production areas enter the减产季, which provides bottom - support for rubber prices. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream tire factories are shutting down, leading to a temporary weakening of demand. High inventory also suppresses the natural rubber market. The short - term market is in a situation where the tightening supply and weakening demand are intertwined [101][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In Q4 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 58.947 million units, with various sub - markets showing weakness [5]. - In January 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 1.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of about 40% [6]. - In January 2026, the export volume of natural rubber in Cote d'Ivoire decreased by 1.8% year - on - year and 5.8% month - on - month to 163,000 tons [6]. - In 2025, the total export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber in Indonesia increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the export volume to China increased by 106% year - on - year [6]. - According to the ANRPC December 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.4% year - on - year to 14.9 million tons, and the consumption is expected to decrease by 0.7% year - on - year to 15.344 million tons [7]. Market Trends - This week, the trends of rubber futures were divergent. RU, NR, and TSR20 on the Singapore Exchange declined, while Japanese rubber rose. On February 6, 2026, the closing price of RU2605 was 16,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71%; the closing price of NR2605 was 13,085 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 was 187.90 cents/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2605 was 341.50 yen/kg, a month - on - month increase of 3.42% [9][11]. Basis, Spread and Substitute Prices - Basis and Calendar Spread: The basis of whole milk - RU05 was - 180 yuan/ton on February 6, 2026, with a month - on - month increase of 14.29% and a year - on - year increase of 69.49%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 22.22% and a year - on - year increase of 165.63% [17]. - Other Spreads: RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while RU - BR spread increased. For example, on February 6, 2026, the RU - NR spread was 2,995 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%; the RU - BR spread was 3,230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.00% [18][20]. - Substitute Prices: Affected by the expected decline in downstream demand for butadiene and the expected increase in domestic supply, the high production cost pressure of butadiene rubber has been slightly alleviated. The production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber has recovered to a high level. Due to the end of pre - holiday stocking and the weakening of cost support, the synthetic rubber futures price has significantly decreased [29]. Fund Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled capital increased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR also decreased, and the settled capital increased. On February 6, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 17.63, a month - on - month decrease of 12.80%; the settled capital was 6.979 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 5.86%. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 19.23, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58%; the settled capital was 2.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% [32][34]. Fundamental Data - Supply - Weather: The rainy season in southern and northeastern Thailand has basically ended. The rainy season in Hainan and Yunnan in China has also basically ended [37][39]. - Raw Material Prices: As overseas production areas transition to the off - season, the raw material supply is relatively tight, and the procurement prices have generally increased [41]. - Raw Material Spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has widened. The domestic production areas are basically in the off - season, and the price update has been suspended [46]. - Upstream Processing Profits: The overall processing profit of rubber in Thailand has declined [47]. - Exports: In December 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month. In January 2026, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month. In November 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month. In January 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month. In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased month - on - month [58][64][70][72]. - Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased to varying degrees this week. Full - steel tires accumulated inventory, while semi - steel tires entered the seasonal de - stocking period. On February 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tires was 60.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 72.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00% [82][81]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Duty Truck Sales: In December 2025, the export of full - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month, while the export of semi - steel tires continued to recover. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks decreased month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [86]. - Road Transport Turnover: In December 2025, the freight turnover and passenger turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month [87]. - Inventory - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory has increased. The inventory in Qingdao has increased due to the arrival volume. The inbound volume has increased by 6.7% month - on - month. Vietnamese rubber tends to accumulate inventory, while Yunnan generally continues to reduce inventory [95]. - Futures Inventory: On February 6, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 112,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%; the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the INE was 51,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.89% [98]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.281 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [102]. - Demand: Many full - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10. Some enterprises are in the final stage, and the production has decreased. Semi - steel tire enterprises are stocking up on foreign trade inventory, and the current start - up is good. However, due to the suspension of logistics in some remote areas, there is a shortage of transportation capacity for pre - holiday stocking, which affects the shipment [102]. - Viewpoint: The supply side is tightening, and the demand side is under pressure. The short - term natural rubber market is in a situation of long - short entanglement, and the rubber price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [103]. - Valuation: As of Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,030 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 980 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton [104]. - Strategy: Wait for opportunities to go long on dips for single - side trading. Observe for calendar spread trading. For cross - variety trading, go long on NR and short on RU. If worried about a sharp rise in RU due to a shortage of warehouse receipts, consider buying call options for the 05 and 09 contracts for protection [105].