2026年海外宏观环境展望：增长格局延续，资产范式渐变

Economic Growth Outlook - The global economic growth rate is projected to stabilize at approximately 3.2% in 2025, similar to 2024, with resilience stemming from tariff impacts being offset by imports and AI investments[3] - The U.S. GDP growth is expected to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone rebounds from 0.9% to 1.4% and Japan improves from 0.1% to 1.1%[3] - Emerging markets are anticipated to maintain a growth rate of 4.2%, with India leading at 6.6% and an IMF forecast adjustment to 7.3% for FY2025-26[3] Monetary Policy Divergence - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points in the first half of 2025, while the Federal Reserve will lower rates by 75 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%[4] - The Bank of Japan is projected to raise rates by 50 basis points, reaching 0.75%, marking a 30-year high[4] Trade and Tariff Dynamics - The effective U.S. tariff rate surged from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to a peak of approximately 27% in April, before normalizing to 16.8% by November[4] - The WTO has revised the global goods trade growth forecast from -0.2% to 0.9% due to the "rush effect" from tariff changes[4] AI Investment Trends - Major cloud service providers are expected to invest around $370 billion in AI capital expenditures, with Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta collectively contributing approximately $366 billion to $374 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 58%[5][6] - This investment is projected to account for nearly 1.9% of the U.S. GDP[6] Asset Pricing and Market Trends - The S&P 500 is forecasted to rise by 16.4% in 2025, with precious metals leading the asset classes; gold is expected to increase by about 70% and silver by 132%[6] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is anticipated to decline by approximately 9.6% throughout 2025, marking its worst performance since 2017[7] Inflation and Labor Market Dynamics - Core CPI is projected to slightly decrease to around 2.7% in 2026, with upward risks remaining due to supply-side inflation pressures[11] - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize around 4.4%, with potential upward pressure from AI-driven labor market changes[25] Geopolitical Considerations - The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a "transactional diplomacy" model led by the U.S., with significant implications for resource control in Latin America and ongoing tensions in Europe and the Middle East[11][41]