国泰君安期货·能源化工聚烯烃周报-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic Part - This week's view: In February and March, there are few maintenance plans. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand slows down, and the situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations continues [6]. - Supply: In 2025, the total effective capacity increased by 16%. New capacity will be put into production at a low rate in the first half of the year and a high rate in the second half. Only BASF Zhanjiang has new capacity for the 05 contract, but the existing capacity has increased significantly compared to the same period. The overall PE operating rate is 85.9%, up 0.5%. Some plants had short - term shutdowns this week, and supply increased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance plans in February and March are expected to decline month - on - month. The production of standard products has increased, and the ethylene derivative profit for PE is acceptable, so the operating rate is expected to remain high [6]. - Demand: In the second week before the Spring Festival, the overall downstream operating rate declined rapidly. The film factory maintained a relatively high load, while the demand for greenhouse films basically stopped. The packaging film's phased inventory replenishment has ended, and new orders are limited. The demand from the food and daily - use product sectors has passed its peak, and the operating rate of the injection - molding industry is expected to continue to decline. After downstream enterprises stocked up some finished products, due to the raw material prices not meeting expectations, large - scale inventory replenishment is limited, and the raw material inventory remains at a medium - low level. Attention should be paid to post - festival restocking [6]. - View: Polyolefins have adjusted to a neutral valuation. Expectations regarding the Middle East geopolitical situation and the Two Sessions have not yet materialized. The upstream inventory has been well - reduced before the Spring Festival, and the inventory situation of the industry has improved compared to December. Therefore, a significant decline is not expected. The ethylene performance is weak, and the PE profit is acceptable compared to other derivatives. With limited maintenance plans in February and March, the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level, so the PE cost - end valuation is moderately high after the repair. The greenhouse film and packaging film industries are entering a seasonal off - season, and although there is an expectation of improvement for mulch films, the pre - festival demand support may be limited. The supply - side pressure will gradually increase at the end of the year. Therefore, from the perspective of the upstream, inventory control is still active, and there is no obvious price - topping behavior. After the mid - and downstream replenished their inventories, the explicit inventory structure is relatively healthy, with a slightly higher mid - stream inventory. Attention should be paid to whether the inventory can continue to be transferred downstream. Before the Spring Festival, the supply may increase while the demand decreases, but the weak - reality pricing is limited, and the market may fluctuate strongly [6]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Wait and see with a fluctuating trend. 2) Inter - period: The willingness to hold inventory is lower than before. Due to the seasonal inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, the flexibility of the spot price is limited. With the continuation of strong expectations, conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage when the price is high. 3) Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [6]. Polypropylene Part - This week's view: PDH plants have concentrated maintenance in the first quarter, and the C3 cost side provides strong support [101]. - Supply: In 2025, the total effective capacity increased by 12.7%, and the annual output increased by 16.7%. The overall capacity is in excess, and the profit has been compressed to a historical low. In the first quarter, due to the continuous low profit of PDH plants, the planned maintenance has increased, and the supply center has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. The weekly operating rate is 73.9%, down 0.8%. Some plants have implemented maintenance, and the operating rate may be difficult to return to a high level, providing marginal support. Recently, PDH plants have made many inquiries about propane for March, and attention should be paid to the resumption time. The domestic demand is weak, and the short - term PP import volume is limited. Fluctuations in freight rates and general overseas demand restrict PP exports. This week, the domestic FOB price increase is greater than that overseas, and the number of signed orders has decreased. The import and export volume is expected to maintain a basic level in the short term [101]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate is differentiated. The terminal提货 rhythm slowed down in the second half of the week, and the finished - product inventory is higher than last year. The demand for plastic weaving has slowed down as the construction and logistics industries gradually enter the holiday. The procurement enthusiasm for BOPP films is good, and they continue to enter the market to purchase annual orders. The order cycle of film factories continues to extend. Although the operating rate has slightly declined this week due to environmental protection and production - line technological transformation. The demand for non - woven fabrics for Spring Festival packaging is increasing, and the operating rate remains stable. Downstream factories such as CPP and daily - use injection - molding are actively reducing their finished - product inventory and shutting down for maintenance. The new round of national subsidy policies and the Spring Festival cleaning have increased the demand for floor cleaners, etc. The demand for home appliances and automobiles is showing an upward trend, especially in the home appliance sector, where sales have increased significantly, which supports the operating rate of the modified PP industry. The injection - molding terminal's willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and as workers return home, the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [102]. - View: The raw - material side, including crude oil and propane, shows a strong performance, and the propylene spot is also strong. The profits of oil - based, propane - based, and propylene - based processes are compressed, and the coal - based profit is at a low level. The overall weighted profit is compressed. Some PDH supply elasticity has been realized marginally, and the cost is significantly different from that of PE. The plastic - weaving industry is showing marginal weakness, while downstream industries such as BOPP and modified PP have acceptable demand due to the Spring Festival, and the operating rate is temporarily supported. However, other products are gradually entering the off - season, and the off - season demand cannot resonate, and some speculative demand is suppressed. In terms of supply, the maintenance scale in the first quarter is currently high, and the supply center has declined month - on - month. The overall PP inventory has been reduced. The upstream had good pre - sales, and some low - price inventory has been transferred to the mid - stream. However, facing the Spring Festival holiday, the confidence of the mid - and downstream in the future market is average, and the sustainability of procurement is questionable. The first quarter may gradually enter a situation of both supply and demand reduction, and the price may fluctuate [103]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Fluctuate. 2) Inter - period: The PDH maintenance rate is still high, and with both supply and demand decreasing, the inter - period spread may fluctuate. 3) Inter - variety: Short the L - PP spread when it is high [103]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Basis/Month Spread: The futures price has adjusted, and the spot prices in various regions have declined. The basis has remained stable, and the number of warehouse receipts is at a high level. The 5 - 9 month spread has fluctuated around - 50 this week due to the seasonal weakness of the downstream and the slower inventory replenishment than before, while the strong expectations continue [14]. - PE Outer - Market Price: The CIF price in China has increased by $10 - 20. The cold wave in the United States and the Middle East geopolitical situation have boosted the willingness of overseas holders, and the price is strong. The price comparison between Europe, Southeast Asia, and China has been repaired. The HD film performance is weak, while the LD and injection - molding products are strong [16]. - Import Window: The import window has been compressed. Overseas suppliers are raising prices, and the non - standard products are at a neutral level year - on - year. The LD import profit is at a relatively high level this year. The price comparison between the United States and the Middle East has declined. Although the Iranian supply offers are acceptable this week, the domestic market is cautious, and there is an expectation of a slight decline in imports [23]. - Non - Standard Spread: The HD standard - product price comparison has weakened, while the LD price comparison has remained stable. Some plants have switched back to producing standard products, and the production of standard products has increased [26]. - Upstream Price: Crude oil is strong, naphtha has followed the increase, and the ethylene monomer has weakened. The coal price has rebounded and then remained stable [29]. - Production Profit: The oil - based profit has limited repair, the coal - based profit has slightly improved, the ethane - based profit has been compressed due to the cold wave in the United States, and the profit from purchasing ethylene externally has significantly repaired recently [35]. Supply - New Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, there was concentrated production of standard products, with the nominal capacity increasing by 19.2% and the effective capacity increasing by 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there is limited new capacity. Attention should be paid to the production progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries. BASF Zhanjiang started trial production at the end of December, and attention should be paid to its production ramp - up progress [40]. - Existing Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base has increased, and the total supply has increased significantly. The operating rate is at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume is relatively high compared to the same period, but it will decline later [42]. - Standard - Product Supply: The LLDPE capacity has been concentratedly put into production, and the production ratio has increased from a low level. The maintenance scale in February has declined month - on - month, and the supply has increased [47]. - Maintenance Plan: The maintenance plans for the first quarter have not been fully announced. The maintenance plans in February and March are lower than the same period last year [50]. - Import: The import volume was high in December. In 2025, the Sino - US trade friction intensified, and the reduction mainly came from the United States. The pressure on the United States to clear inventory has eased, and the cold wave has led to a strong local ethylene market. The Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the import volume may decline month - on - month [56]. Demand & Inventory - Overall Demand: The overall downstream demand is accelerating its decline. The agricultural film operating rate is accelerating its decline, and the profit of mulch films is compressed year - on - year. The packaging film operating rate is higher than the same period last year, but the enthusiasm for raw - material inventory replenishment is limited. The profit of the industry is at a high level, but the number of orders is slightly lower than the same period. The demand for food and tobacco and alcohol during the Spring Festival has been fulfilled, and there may be limited improvement in the future. The construction of northern terminals has declined seasonally, and the pipe - making industry mainly replenishes inventory after the Spring Festival. The raw - material inventory is slightly lower than the same period [71][78][85]. - Inventory: The total supply has continued to increase. The production of standard products has increased with the production ratio. Previously, the mid - stream established positions in the futures and spot markets, and agents placed orders, transferring the inventory to the mid - stream. The standard - product factory inventory has accumulated, the LD and HD factory inventories have been reduced, and the mid - stream inventory reduction has been difficult [64][69]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - Basis/Month Spread: The futures price has adjusted. As the inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival is approaching the end, the basis has limited strengthening. The upstream had many pre - sales before, and the selling pressure before the festival is temporarily not large. The mid - stream has established a large amount of inventory, and the number of warehouse receipts remains at a high level. The month spread fluctuates [110]. - PP Outer - Market: The CIF price in China has rebounded. The quotes in north - western Europe have rebounded, and the price comparison in Southeast Asia has strengthened. The import window has been compressed month - on - month, the exchange rate has strengthened, and the profit from exporting to Southeast Asia has limited increase [117]. - Non - Standard Spread: The regional spread of拉丝 has slightly narrowed. In terms of varieties, the spread between拉丝 and low - melt copolymer is the same as the same period last year. This week, the upstream production enterprises'拉丝 production ratio has remained at a relatively low level, and the spread between high - and low - melt products has significantly narrowed [125]. - Upstream Price: Crude oil, naphtha, and propylene are strong. The coal price remains stable [131]. - Production Profit: The overall profit is compressed. The PDH - based valuation remains at a low level, and the coal - based and propylene - based process profits are in the red [138]. Supply - New Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, there was a large - scale production of new capacity, with the effective capacity increasing by 12.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there is limited new capacity. Attention should be paid to the production progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries [146]. - Existing Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base has increased, and the total supply has increased significantly. The operating rate has recently declined, and the maintenance volume is higher than the same period [147]. - Supply Details: The production of oil - based and PDH - based products is at a high level. The maintenance in the first quarter has increased significantly compared to December, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. Attention should be paid to the implementation [152]. - Maintenance Plan: The subsequent maintenance scale will decline slightly. The monthly maintenance volume in the first quarter is higher than the same period last year [157]. - Import and Export: The domestic production increase is large, the import volume is at a low level year - on - year, and the export volume has increased significantly. However, part of the export comes from the processing of imported materials by southern plants. Recently, the domestic - to - overseas price comparison is weak, and the overseas demand is general. The export volume will maintain a basic level. The export to Southeast Asia and South Asia has increased significantly [163][165]. Demand & Inventory - Overall Demand: The plastic - weaving operating rate is declining and may continue to weaken with the Spring Festival. The packaging operating rate is the same as the same period last year, and the enthusiasm for raw - material inventory replenishment is better than other products. The industry profit is at a high level, and the order cycle continues to increase. The profit of tape master rolls is compressed, and they are actively reducing their finished - product inventory, but it is still higher than the same period. The number of orders has declined seasonally, which may suppress the elasticity of BOPP, etc. The CPP is actively reducing its finished - product inventory, and the raw - material inventory is at a high level. The demand for PP non - woven fabrics is acceptable, and the raw - material inventory has slightly accumulated. The pipe - making operating rate is declining, and the injection - molding operating rate has increased against the season [179][184][190][193][195]. - Inventory: The supply has declined temporarily. The upstream is actively reducing inventory, and the low - price inventory has been transferred to the mid - stream. The oil - based inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and the standard - product explicit factory inventory is at a neutral level [172][174].