矿石价格持稳，氧化铝供给压减

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillating" [4] Core Viewpoints - Ore prices remain stable, and alumina supply is being reduced. The alumina industry is still in a downward cycle, and prices do not have a basis for a significant rebound for now [1][14] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The delivered tax - included price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi was 640 yuan, and in Henan, the delivered price of 58/5 bauxite was 610 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, most mines entered the shutdown cycle, and market prices remained relatively stable but were still in a downward cycle. The quoted price of Guinea ore (45/3) by ALD was maintained at 61 - 62 US dollars/dry ton, and downstream users' intention to receive goods was gradually approaching CIF 55 US dollars/ton. After a slight increase in freight rates, the FOB price in Guinea has fallen below the cost of some mines. Newly arrived ore during the period was 423.2 million tons, including 353.4 million tons of Guinea resources and 69.7 million tons of Australian resources. The market reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China was 26.5 US dollars/ton [1][11] - Alumina: Alumina spot prices remained stable last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was between 2580 - 2640 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2610.4 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The port quotation of imported alumina was between 2700 - 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Market prices were affected by market rumors and fluctuated relatively sharply. In terms of imports, 30,000 tons of alumina in Western Australia was sold at FOB 310 US dollars/ton. As of the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2583 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 78 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, domestic maintenance - style production cuts were frequent, the operating capacity fluctuated flexibly, and the overall supply situation had not changed fundamentally. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 82.3% [2][12] - Demand: Domestically, the second - phase new project of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Zha Aluminum continued to be put into production, and the industry's operating capacity increased slowly. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.473 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. Overseas, new projects in Indonesia were being put into production successively. The latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 30.03 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [12] - Inventory: As of Thursday (February 5), the national alumina inventory was 5.193 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to slow down due to the supply - demand difference between the north and the south, with a slight decrease in inventory of a few aluminum plants and limited increase due to saturated storage capacity of some aluminum plants. The bagged inventory of alumina enterprises continued to rise; new ships arrived at northern ports, causing an instantaneous increase in inventory. The increase in delivery warehouses was obvious, and the in - transit inventory began to shrink [13] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 218,000 tons, an increase of 46,896 tons from the previous week. The alumina futures price rebounded. Supply disruptions from large northern manufacturers supported the price. Considering the current supply - demand situation, the surplus has slightly eased, but the cost continues to decline. Overall, the industry is still in a downward cycle, and prices do not have a basis for a significant rebound [14] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - January Cost Survey: Based on preliminary research and calculations by ALD, in January, the fully - cost - profitable production capacity of the alumina industry was 34 million tons, accounting for 35.1% of the total operating capacity that month, and the loss - making production capacity was 62.85 million tons, accounting for 64.9%. The cash - cost - profitable production capacity was 73.8 million tons, accounting for 76.2% of the total operating capacity that month, and the loss - making production capacity was 23.05 million tons, accounting for 23.8%. Theoretically, the entire industry had a full - cost loss of 447 million yuan and a positive cash flow of 853 million yuan in January [15] - Theoretical Import Loss in the North: On January 30, the Australian alumina quotation was around 306 US dollars/ton, the same as the price on January 23. According to real - time data, the cost of reaching the northern ports in China was about 2667 yuan/ton, and theoretically, the northern import loss was about 57 yuan/ton [15] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The report includes charts on domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volumes of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and domestic alumina production costs in various provinces [16][18][25] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report includes charts on domestic alumina spot prices in various provinces, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. It also provides data on the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina from October 2025 to February 2026 [34][36][40] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes charts on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of the holding volume to the warehouse receipt volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [43][46][51]