市场波动增加，黄金震荡收涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices ended higher in an oscillating market, with London gold rising 1.4% to $4,964 per ounce. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.21%, inflation expectations were at 2.32%, and real interest rates slightly decreased to 1.89%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.66% to 97.6, and the S&P 500 index fell 0.1%. The RMB ended higher in an oscillating market, and the domestic - foreign price difference fluctuated more [1]. - Precious metals continued to be highly volatile. Gold's volatility declined to around 30, while silver's volatility remained at 80%. Gold outperformed silver overall, and the gold - silver ratio continued to rise. The market digested the negative news from Kevin Warsh, but the gold price found support at around the 60 - day moving average where bargain - hunting funds entered. The Fed is in a wait - and - see stage in the short term, and there is a lack of positive factors in short - term monetary policy. U.S. economic data is mixed, with the January ADP new employment of 22,000 falling short of expectations, but the January ISM manufacturing and service PMI both better than expected, and inflation pressure remaining [2]. - Geopolitical risks have marginally eased but not completely disappeared. The U.S. and Iran restarted negotiations, and Sino - U.S. leaders had a phone call. U.S. President Trump plans to visit China in April, which has cooled short - term risk - aversion sentiment. China's gold reserves increased by 1.2 tons in January, and the central bank's gold - buying direction remains unchanged [3]. - As the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, it is difficult for funds to continuously flow into gold. The gold price has entered an oscillating stage. After the volatility declines, attention should be paid to long - position allocation opportunities [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) decreased by 46.7% to 1.37 yuan/gram. The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) decreased by 135.3% to - 22.98 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 1.0% to 104,052 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.06% to 35,370,105 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased by 1.00% to 1076.23 tons. The CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 23.0% to 93,438 lots. The U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.9% to 4.22%, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.51% to 97.61, the SOFR remained unchanged at 3.65%, the U.S. 10 - year break - even interest rate decreased by 0.53% to 2.3287%, the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.1% to 6,932, the VIX volatility index rose 1.8% to 17.8, the gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 7.7% to 6.8, and the U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 2.5% to 1.88% [12] 3.2 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.66%, and the U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.21%. The S&P 500 index fell 0.1%, and the VIX index rose to 17.7. The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.65%, and oil prices fell 2.3% while U.S. inflation expectations were 2.33% [16][19] 3.2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets rose, but the S&P 500 index fell 0.1%. Developing - country stock markets had mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.27%. Real interest rates slightly decreased to 1.88%, and the gold price rose 1.4%. The spot commodity index ended lower, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.66%. U.S. and German bonds slightly decreased, with the U.S. - German interest rate spread at 1.36%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.51%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.23%. The euro depreciated 0.31%, the pound depreciated 0.55%, the yen depreciated 1.58%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 0.39%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.66% to 97.6, and non - U.S. currencies had mixed performance [23][24][30] 3.3 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data is presented. The SPDR gold ETF holding volume slightly decreased to 1076 tons. The RMB's trend was oscillating, and the domestic - foreign price difference fluctuated more. Gold ended higher while silver tumbled, and the gold - silver ratio rose to 63.7 [36][39] 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's December financial data to be released. Tuesday: U.S. December retail sales. Wednesday: China's January CPI and PPI, U.S. January non - farm payrolls. Thursday: U.S. January PPI and initial jobless claims. Friday: U.S. January CPI [41]