铂钯周报-20260208

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum is rated as weak, and palladium is also rated as weak [3] Core View - Platinum and palladium prices may remain low for some time due to weak high - frequency data and the shadow over the precious metals sector. They lack the basis for a rapid rebound to previous highs. Palladium shows stronger resilience during the pullback [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - Trading Volume and Position: At the close of this week, the total position of Guangbo was 27,444 lots with a trading volume of 111,512 lots; the total position of Guangpalladium was 9,921 lots with a trading volume of 56,422 lots. Both trading volume and position decreased compared to last week. The trading volume and position of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts [7] - Price Structure: This week, the monthly structure of platinum and palladium switched to B structure [7] - Platinum - Palladium Ratio: As the market continued to decline this week, the platinum - palladium ratio continued to converge. The foreign - exchange platinum - palladium ratio was 1.21, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum - palladium ratio was 1.23 at the close on Friday. One can consider a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy when the ratio is between 1.15 - 1.2 [12] - Overseas Spot - Futures Spread: For platinum, the spread between London spot platinum and New York platinum main contract was inverted on Friday, with the London price higher. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract fluctuated sharply. For palladium, the spread between London spot palladium and New York palladium main contract was inverted before Friday and returned to a state where New York was at a premium on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract had an average value of $35.4 per ounce this week [15][19] - Arbitrage Opportunities: - Platinum spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 6.4 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 22.0 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [21] - Palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 4.9 yuan per gram, and the spread is 24.5 yuan per gram, with a profit window of 13.6 yuan per gram [23] - Platinum near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 6.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 14.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [25] - Palladium near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 5.5 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 5.0 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [27] - Platinum internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 63.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is 39.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [29] - Palladium internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 53.0 yuan per gram, and the spread is 29.6 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [31] - Platinum import parity calculation: The cost is 58.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 71.2 yuan per gram, with a profit window of 12.5 yuan per gram [33] - Palladium import parity calculation: The cost is 49.9 yuan per gram, and the spread is 40.9 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [35] - Recycling Spread: The average platinum recycling discount this week was at - 88 yuan per gram, and the palladium recycling discount widened rapidly to around - 150 yuan per gram during the week [38] - ETF Holdings: This week, platinum ETF holdings decreased by 2.63 tons (about 84,400 ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.68 tons (about 21,900 ounces). The continuous outflow of platinum and palladium ETFs does not currently indicate a trend reversal, and the ETF flow needs to be closely monitored in the future [40] Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - Forward Discount Rate: In the past three months, the overseas forward markets for platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discount for platinum and palladium has diverged. Platinum's forward discount has continued to significantly converge, with the full - term limit falling within 6% on Friday. Palladium's forward discount has risen rapidly, reaching around 4% on Friday [45] - Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio: - Platinum: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory further declined to 646,400 ounces (about 20.11 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 50.5% on Friday [46] - Palladium: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory slightly decreased to 190,900 ounces (about 5.94 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts rapidly increased to 77.7% [49] - China's Import - Export Data: - Platinum: Since September 2025, platinum exports have soared, and imports and net inflows have diverged. The cumulative net inflow since January 2020 has been 553.88 tons. In December, both import and export amounts increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. January 2026 data is not yet available [57] - Palladium: Since 2020, there has been almost no palladium export, and it is in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, the import amount further increased to 5.68 tons, and the net inflow was 5.63 tons. January 2026 data is not yet available [57] - London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance: A negative supply - demand balance means that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, indicating that the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the average supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was - 5.5 kg, and it was - 50 kg on Friday. For palladium, the supply - demand balance was below - 150 kg on two days this week [58][59][60]