C3产业链周度报告-20260208

Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: February 8, 2026 - Author: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views LPG - Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, but the fundamental drivers are downward. The market will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term, and the medium - to long - term drivers are downward [3]. Propylene - The fundamentals remain tight, but the upward driving force is weakening. The spot price of propylene is expected to fluctuate within a range before the holiday [4]. Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot and basis/USD cost trends are firm, domestic civil prices are slightly adjusted, and ether - after prices have weakened significantly. International propane prices have fluctuated, and freight rates remain high [7]. Supply - Total domestic LPG commodity volume is 549,000 tons (+0.9%), civil gas is 225,000 tons (-2.8%), and ether - after is 180,000 tons (+6.1%). US, Canadian, and Middle Eastern LPG shipments have different trends, and China's propane supply has increased [33][67][78]. Demand & Inventory - PDH operating rate has slightly increased, and MTBE operating rate has remained flat. LPG refinery inventory is at a neutral level, civil gas is de - stocking, ether - after is accumulating inventory, and terminal inventory is mainly accumulating [79]. Balance Sheet - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong; in the second quarter, supply will return to normal, and the tight supply - demand pattern is expected to ease [114]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Propane buying support is strong, PDH costs have further increased, and propylene prices have adjusted narrowly. The upstream and downstream prices of the propylene industry chain have changed, and the import window remains closed [115][117]. Balance Sheet - Supply has increased and demand has decreased this week. In January and February, the supply - demand was in a tight balance, and it is expected to be looser in March [135][157]. Supply - Weekly propylene output is 1.17 million tons (+19,000), and the operating rate is 72% (+1.2%). Refinery, cracking, PDH, and MTO operating rates have different changes [161][163]. Demand - The operating rates of propylene downstream products such as PP, PP powder, PO, acrylonitrile, etc. have changed, and the profits of some products have been compressed [201]. Downstream Inventory - PP and related powder inventories, as well as other downstream inventories such as acrylonitrile and phenol, have different changes [284].