甲醇周度报告-20260208

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a sideways movement, with limited upside and downside potential. Macro - level factors, such as the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the US, are being closely monitored, and no clear conclusion can be drawn. Fundamentally, the methanol port inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and there are expectations of the resumption of methanol plants in Iran, resulting in a somewhat bearish fundamental outlook [2][4]. - In terms of valuation, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of a negative feedback from coastal MTO plants will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan, which is gradually stabilizing around 1950 - 2000 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower end of the methanol valuation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - From January 30 to February 5, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,061,085 tons, an increase of 23,350 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 92.26%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15%. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.073 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 92.79%, higher than the current period. The planned resumption of production capacity next week exceeds the capacity involved in maintenance and production cuts, which may lead to an increase in capacity utilization and production [4]. Demand - Olefins: The load of previously restarted olefin plants is gradually increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue rising. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin and Chongqing Wanshengxin plants are expected to shut down next week, with a projected supply reduction and a possible decline in overall capacity utilization. For glacial acetic acid, the faulty plants are gradually recovering this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly next week. For formaldehyde, plants such as Binzhou Hengyun, Gushi Huanyu, Li'eryan, and Guangxi Luqiao are expected to undergo maintenance, and plants like Jinyimeng may further reduce their loads, so the supply is expected to continue to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clearly defined shutdown plants in the next period, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate may increase slightly compared to this week. Attention should be paid to the situation of plants with load reduction and the impact of high liquid chlorine prices on methane chloride production plants [4]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on February 4, 2026, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 368,300 tons, a decrease of 55,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 13.16%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 287,100 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 8.05%. - As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 1.411 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 4.15%. The methanol port inventory decreased this week, with 127,300 tons of visible foreign vessel discharges recorded during the period. The terminal rigid demand in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas remained stable, the提货 volume of the mainstream social warehouses was average, and the inventory decreased due to the reduction in discharges. The inventory at the South China ports increased. In the Guangdong area, there were a small number of imported and domestic vessels arriving this week, the提货 volume of the mainstream warehouses was average, and the inventory did not change much. In the Fujian area, imported cargo continued to be replenished. The提货 volume was stable due to rigid demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it was still unable to offset the increase in supply, resulting in an inventory increase [4]. 3.2 Strategies - Unilateral trading: In the short term, methanol is expected to move sideways, with resistance at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton [4]. - Inter - delivery spread trading: The 5 - 9 spread may show a positive spread pattern. - Inter - commodity spread trading: The spread between MA and PP is in a sideways pattern [4].