美豆周度报告-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to South American bumper harvest, there is no basis for a bull market; however, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. Overall, the market is expected to be slightly bullish in a range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans increased significantly. The settlement price of the continuous US soybean contract was 1115.25 cents per bushel, up 51 cents per bushel. The price was supported by China's additional purchase of 8 million tons of soybeans in the current crop year and the unresolved threat to crops in the Argentine production area [7] - This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $303.6 per short ton, up $10 per short ton. The strength of US soybean meal was mainly supported by China's additional purchase of US soybeans and Trump's expected visit to China in April [11] - This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated and closed higher, at 55.33 cents per pound, up 1.82 cents per pound. The rise was driven by the strength of US soybeans, the increase in crude oil prices, and the re - stabilization of the commodity index [15] - As of January 30, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.82 per bushel, up $0.13 [18] - As of January 30, the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.943 per bushel, basically unchanged [20] - On February 6, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose by 0.96 to 100.59 reais per bag [22] - As of February 5, the spot price of soybeans at Brazilian ports rose by 0.7 to 125.61 reais per bag [24] 3.2 Supply Factors - In Brazil, the western region will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, the eastern region will have more, and the central - western region will be basically normal. The overall precipitation in the main production areas in the next two weeks will be normal to above - normal [27][31] - In Argentina, the main production areas will be dry in the next week, and precipitation will gradually recover in the second phase. The southern production areas will have less precipitation, while the northern production areas will improve [42][44] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of January 30, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.61 per bushel, compared with $2.4 last week [49] - In the week of January 30, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.3876 million tons, compared with 1.2695 million tons last week [51] - In the week of January 30, the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.3105 million tons, compared with 1.3244 million tons last week [53] - In the week of January 30, the net sales of the current crop year were 436,900 tons, compared with 818,900 tons last week [56] - The sales of US soybeans for the next crop year were 9,000 tons, compared with 400 tons last week [58] - In the week of January 30, the quantity shipped to China was 740,000 tons, compared with 897,400 tons last week [60] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.85, and La Nina is weakening [63] - The cost of soybeans in Brazil is expected to rise next year, and the planting costs of soybeans in Brazil and the US are expected to rise slightly [65][67] - As of February 3, the net long position of soybeans was 61,600 lots, compared with 54,300 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 9,950 lots, compared with a net short position of 18,100 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 21,700 lots, compared with a net short position of 31,700 lots last week [71][73][75]