PVC：偏弱震荡：烧碱：低位震荡，未来成本抬升预期强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The caustic soda market is expected to experience low - level fluctuations in the short term, with a strong expectation of cost increase in the future. The PVC market is expected to show weak fluctuations [5][6]. - For caustic soda, the 03 contract faces significant delivery pressure, and the weak spot market situation is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. However, the decline in liquid chlorine prices in the later period will lead to cost increases and large - scale production cuts in the far - month contracts. For PVC, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival [5][7]. - The main incremental market for caustic soda in 2026 is exports, but it also faces structural adjustments. PVC exports are expected to weaken in the long term due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [18][143]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Core Contradiction and Export - Core Contradictions - The short - sellers' main logic includes high supply and high inventory, continuous alumina production reduction expectations, new production capacity in the next year, and near - month warehouse receipt delivery pressure. The long - sellers' main logic includes policy drive, cost support, multi - asset linkage, overseas plant shutdowns, and capital drive [10]. - The three core contradictions are weak production reduction willingness on the supply side, expanding but profit - affected demand, and the structure adjustment of the export market [10]. - Export Situation - In 2025, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 4.1087 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The proportion of China's caustic soda exports to Indonesia has been increasing, but it was affected by new production capacity in Thailand in the second half of 2025. The FOB price in Northeast Asia has declined, and the export profit has also changed. The 50 - 32 caustic soda price difference is favorable for caustic soda [18][23]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - Production and Inventory - The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above is 87.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 471,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 9.41% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97% [37][40]. - Production Capacity Expansion - In 2026, caustic soda production capacity will continue to be put into operation, with a growth rate of over 3%. The total planned new production capacity is 2.94 million tons [45]. - Cost and Profit - The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2,075 yuan. The price of liquid chlorine has weakened, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited. The profits of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and chloroform have declined [49][53]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina Demand - In the first half of 2026, alumina production capacity will be put into operation intensively, with an expected annual new production capacity of 13.9 million tons. However, the alumina industry is currently experiencing a decline in production, an increase in inventory, and a loss in profit, which has a negative impact on caustic soda demand [72][73]. - Other Industries' Demand - The paper pulp industry is in the off - season, with compressed terminal profits. The viscose staple fiber industry has stable operation, while the printing and dyeing industry has a decline in operation. The water treatment industry has an increase in operation, and the ternary precursor industry has an increase in production [82][94][96]. 3.4 PVC Core Contradiction and Spread - Core Contradictions - The short - sellers' main logic includes high supply and high inventory, weak domestic demand, and a slowdown in export growth. The long - sellers' main logic includes policy drive, cost support, multi - asset linkage, overseas plant shutdowns, and capital drive. The three core contradictions are high supply and high inventory, low profit but no large - scale capacity elimination, and a large far - month premium in futures [103][104]. - Price Spread - The PVC basis has weakened, and the monthly spread has also weakened [105]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week is 79.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88%. In 2026, except for the release of the production capacity of Jiahua, there is no new production capacity for PVC. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants is at a low level but has not reached the cash - flow cost [112][116][118]. - Demand - Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and downstream enterprises have low inventory - building willingness. Exports are expected to weaken in the long term due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. PVC downstream industries will face a decline in operation during the Spring Festival [7][143]. - Inventory - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, but the social inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The warehouse receipts have declined but are still at a high level [121][147].