不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移：镍：节前资金离场冲击，中线矛盾仍在印尼

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - price and inventory - accumulation situation in the nickel market is due to the divergence between the secondary market and the industrial sector in the expectation of Indonesian policies. The game over Indonesian policies continues, and short - term fluctuations are affected by the departure of speculative funds before the Spring Festival [1]. - For the Shanghai nickel market, the mid - term contradiction lies in Indonesian nickel ore policies. Although the current fundamentals are not strong, the price is mainly driven by policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the risk of capital withdrawal before the Spring Festival and the possible second - wave increase after the festival if the quota approval is less than expected [4][5]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has moved up. The overall trend follows Shanghai nickel and other non - ferrous metals. The market is affected by Indonesian policies, and it shows a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with seasonal inventory accumulation expected. The direction depends on the dynamics of Indonesian quota policies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Key Events - Quota Event: Indonesia is still approving nickel ore quotas, with the target possibly reduced to 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. Some enterprises have obtained quotas, but the quantity is currently lower than in previous years. There is a difference in views between the industry and capital on the policy. If the quota is implemented, it may reverse the oversupply expectation and impact the high inventory [1]. - Associated Mineral Event: Indonesia plans to include associated minerals such as cobalt in nickel ore in the pricing and taxation system. This may increase the ore - purchasing cost of the smelting end by about 5% - 10%. However, if the cost can be transferred to downstream cobalt products, the impact on the nickel - wet - process cost will be limited [2]. - Conflict Event: Some Indonesian mining companies are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land. The negotiation process of fines is worthy of attention as it may lead to an increase in ore prices and smelting costs. In addition, the monopoly behavior of the port storage and logistics in the IMIP park has increased market concerns about the supply of Indonesian resources [2]. - Other Events: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel mining business, but later resumed normal operations after obtaining part of the mining quota. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor leading enterprises and wet - process projects [3]. 3.2 Market Quotes Views - Shanghai Nickel: Before the Spring Festival, the departure of funds has an impact. The mid - term contradiction lies in Indonesian policies. The macro - sentiment of non - ferrous metals has cooled down. The current fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and marginal inventory accumulation, and the industry tends to sell on rallies for hedging. The market mainly trades on the expectation of Indonesian nickel ore policies. The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore has increased, which may drive up the pyrometallurgical cost. Attention should be paid to the important window period of Indonesian nickel ore quota policies from the Spring Festival to March [4][5]. - Stainless Steel: There are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has moved up. The overall trend follows Shanghai nickel and other non - ferrous metals. Indonesian policies such as quota, associated - product pricing, and mining fines have increased market uncertainty. If the quota policy is implemented, it may support ferronickel. The cobalt pricing may increase the ferronickel cost by about 5% and the stainless - steel cost by 3%. The supply of stainless steel in February has decreased significantly, and the consumption end is also weak. The market shows a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with seasonal inventory accumulation expected, and the direction depends on the dynamics of Indonesian quota policies [6]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: On February 6, China's social inventory increased by 1,191 tons to 70,429 tons, with warehouse - receipt inventory increasing by 4,398 tons to 51,274 tons, spot inventory decreasing by 3,207 tons to 15,285 tons, and bonded - area inventory remaining unchanged at 3,870 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,002 tons to 285,282 tons [7]. - New Energy: On February 6, the inventory days of the upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate were flat month - on - month at 5, 9, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory increased by 0.2 to 13.3 days month - on - month, and the ternary - material inventory increased by 0.3 to 7.2 days month - on - month [7]. - Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel: On February 5, the inventory of the entire nickel - iron industry chain decreased by 11% month - on - month to 119,000 metal tons. In January, the stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.5 million tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 4% and 1% respectively. On February 5, the stainless - steel social inventory was 964,960 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.29%. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 607,856 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.83%, and the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 357,104 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.75% [7]. 3.4 Market News - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for certain products through the OSS platform [8]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [8]. - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026 and will treat cobalt, a by - product of nickel, as an independent commodity and levy royalties [8]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel - ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [10]. - Some Indonesian mining companies are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and they are negotiating with the government [10]. - The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister said that the 2026 nickel - ore production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, with the output possibly around 250 - 260 million tons [10]. - The KPPU reported that the port storage and logistics in the IMIP park had monopoly behavior, and the park is in negotiation [10]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [11]. - Indonesia has started to approve the 2026 mining work plans and budgets for some companies [11]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months [11]. - The Indonesian investment department reported that the Indonesian subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group had never submitted an investment - activity report [12]. 3.5 Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and related price differences of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices and spreads of various nickel - related products, stainless - steel products, and other related products [15].