铸造铝合金产业链周报-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The market sentiment has significantly cooled this week, and the AD price has declined. However, aluminum enterprises in the spot market are holding up prices, leading to a rapid expansion of the spot premium. Before the Spring Festival, the industry's operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, with limited support for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction - Volume and Price - The document shows data on the price differences between different AD contracts (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03) and the trends of capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest from 2025 - 10 to 2026 - 01 [7]. 3.2 Transaction - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2602 and AD2603 contracts on February 6, 2026, the fixed cost of the inter - period positive arbitrage in the casting aluminum alloy (including VAT, trading fees, etc.) is 15.32 yuan/ton, and the floating cost (including storage fees, capital costs, etc.) is 49.00 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 64.32 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of the casting aluminum alloy is 23,600 yuan/ton. The total cost of spot - futures arbitrage, including storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, is 23,751.9 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3 Supply - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level in the same period, and social inventories are continuously decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.82% [14][16]. 3.4 Supply - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has decreased, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has increased. The regional price difference of the casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of the casting aluminum alloy has decreased, while the monthly operating rate remains at a high level. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break - even line [26][31][36]. - The factory inventory of the casting aluminum alloy has increased significantly, while the social inventory has decreased slightly. The import window for the casting aluminum alloy is closed [43][44]. - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum bars are provided. The production of recycled aluminum bars in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also presented [47][49]. 3.5 Demand - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption, especially in the automotive sector, shows resilience, which is transmitted to the die - casting industry. The production data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts and the monthly value of the auto inventory warning index [52][53].