锌产业链周度报告-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices oscillate and converge before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro - sentiment side. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore expansion cycle is coming to an end, and the zinc ore tight - balance may become the norm. The TC operation center is expected to decline this year, and the zinc price operation center is expected to rise. In the short term, zinc prices may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Price: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 24,450, with a weekly decline of 5.36%. The closing price of the night session was 24,595, with a night - session increase of 0.59%. The price of LmeS - zinc3 was 3,383, with an increase of 0.39% [6]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE zinc last Friday was 155,796, a decrease of 345,667 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 65,853, a decrease of 39,686 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 11,193, a decrease of 8,040 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 232,974, a decrease of 6,461 compared with the previous week [6]. - Price Spreads: The LME zinc premium decreased by 13.15, the bonded - area zinc premium increased by 130, the Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium increased by 20, the Guangdong 0 zinc spot premium decreased by 30, and the Tianjin 0 zinc spot premium decreased by 25. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 55. The zinc spot import loss increased by 444.89, and the SHFE zinc 3M import loss increased by 428.79 [7]. - Inventory: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 2,620, the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 5,535, the social inventory increased by 16,700, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,400, and the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at a high level, and zinc ingots are accumulating normally before the holiday [10]. - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at a historical low. Mining enterprise profits are declining but still at a historical high, smelting profits are declining and at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - Operation Rate: The zinc concentrate operation rate is rising and at a high level in the same period of history. The refined zinc operation rate is rising and at a medium level in the same period of history. The downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates are falling and at a medium - low level in the same period of history [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: The spot premium is rising. This week, overseas premiums are differentiated, with the Singapore premium remaining flat, the Antwerp premium remaining flat, and the LME CASH - 3M falling [18][20]. - Price Spreads: The SHFE zinc C - structure flattens [22]. - Inventory: This week, there is a significant inventory accumulation, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is falling. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, the total LME inventory is relatively stable, CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancelled - warrant ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded - area inventory remains unchanged this week, and the global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][34]. - Futures: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level in the same period of history [35]. 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level in the same period, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and the smelter raw - material inventory is at a low level in the same period [38][39]. - Refined Zinc: Smelting output is rising and at a high level in the same period of history. Smelter finished - product inventory is rising and at a high level in the same period of history. Zinc alloy output is at a high level [40]. - Imports and Exports: The refined zinc import loss is increasing, and the import volume and export volume data are also presented in the report [42]. - Recycled Zinc Raw Materials: The operation rate of 87 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills and the scrap - steel daily consumption of 147 steel mills are presented, as well as the average prices of galvanized pipe slag and Hunan secondary zinc oxide [44][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined Zinc Consumption: The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive [51]. - Downstream Operation Rate: The downstream monthly operation rate has increased slightly and is mostly at a high level in the same period of history [55]. - Downstream Raw - Material Inventory: The raw - material inventories of galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are presented [56]. - Downstream Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventories of galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are presented [59]. - Terminal Demand: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [65]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, electricity, and carbon emissions are presented, as well as the profit and loss of zinc smelters in different European countries [67][68][69][70].