玻璃纯碱周度报告-20260208

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the glass and soda ash industries by Guotai Junan Futures, dated February 8, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Both the glass and soda ash industries are rated as mid - term oscillating markets [2][3] Core Views - Glass: It is a mid - term oscillating market. Short - term pressure comes from forward premium, inventory, and off - season factors. Mid - term, the bullish drive is anti - deflation, anti - involution, and potential production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate between rising due to production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. In 2026, it may be weak in the first half and stronger in the second half [2] - Soda Ash: It is also a mid - term oscillating market. The core pressure drivers are supply surplus, forward premium, and potential downstream production cuts. It is supported by cost when falling and restricted by supply surplus and glass industry production cuts when rising. Its rhythm follows glass but with lower volatility [3] Summary by Directory Glass Supply - As of February 5, 2026, there are 296 glass production lines (199,500 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 211 in production and 85 cold - repaired. The daily output is 149,800 tons, a 0.79% decrease from the 29th. The average weekly开工率 is 71.86% (unchanged), and the average capacity utilization is 75.61% (a 0.09 - percentage - point decrease). The daily loss is 49,680 tons (a 2.48% increase), and the weekly loss is 340,600 tons (a 0.35% increase) [2] - In 2025, 35 lines were cold - repaired with a total daily melting capacity of 21,330 tons, and 22 lines were ignited with a total daily melting capacity of 15,010 tons. There are potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting capacity of 14,490 tons and potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting capacity of 9,370 tons. There are also potential cold - repair lines with a total daily melting capacity of 9,420 tons [6][7][8][9][10] Demand - As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.3 days, a 7.9% increase from the previous period and an 86.4% increase year - on - year. As the Spring Festival approaches, most processing plants are in the rush - work period, with the order execution days increasing slightly, mainly around 10 days [2] Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 53.064 million heavy boxes, a 0.95% increase from the previous period and an 11.77% decrease year - on - year. The inventory days are 23.1 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous period. Inventory trends vary by region [2] Price and Profit - Prices in most areas are stable. The price in Shahe is around 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton, in Central China's Hubei is around 1,080 - 1,120 yuan/ton, and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 1,160 - 1,260 yuan/ton. The basis strengthens due to the decline in futures prices. The profit of petroleum coke is about 45 yuan/ton, while the profits of natural gas and coal - fired fuels are about - 168 and - 68 yuan/ton respectively [15][18][19][21] Photovoltaic Glass - The market transaction has weakened recently, and it is expected to continue. The price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter (unchanged), and the price of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.0 yuan/square meter (a 1.39% decrease). The inventory may increase seasonally, but it may improve after the second quarter [36][38][39][43] Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The supply of soda ash decreased slightly this week. The weekly output is 774,300 tons, a 1.12% decrease. The comprehensive capacity utilization is 83.25%, a 0.94% decrease from last week. Some large - scale devices are under maintenance [3][51] Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.5811 million tons, a 2.39% increase from last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash is 835,000 tons (a 69,000 - ton increase), and the inventory of heavy soda ash is 746,100 tons (a 300,000 - ton increase). Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 15.85% [3][56] Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe is 1,130 yuan/ton, and the market price fluctuates slightly. Some light and heavy soda ash prices in the northern region decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 29 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 88 yuan/ton [63][66][71] - There are several planned and under - construction soda ash projects, including Jinshan Chemical, Xiangheng Salt Chemical, Zhongyan Salt Industry Phase I, and Ningxia Risheng [68]