中电联预计26年用电增速5%-6%，2月代理购电价整体下行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The China Electricity Council forecasts a 5%-6% growth in electricity consumption for 2026, with a significant decline in proxy electricity prices in February [5][12] - Over 80% of provinces and cities reported a year-on-year decrease in proxy electricity prices in February, with Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning experiencing the largest declines of 29.3%, 25.6%, and 23.1% respectively [5][14] - The report anticipates that by the end of 2026, the installed capacity of solar power will exceed that of coal power for the first time, with renewable energy sources accounting for half of the total installed capacity [5][14] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report predicts that by 2026, the total installed capacity of renewable energy will reach half of the total installed capacity, with solar power surpassing coal power for the first time [5][14] - The total electricity consumption in China is expected to be between 10.9 and 11 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%-6% [5][14] Investment Trends - In January 2026, the State Grid completed fixed asset investments of 30.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.1% [6][14] - The Southern Power Grid plans to invest over 24 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2026, marking a year-on-year increase of over 20% [7][14] Proxy Electricity Prices - The report highlights that proxy electricity prices have generally decreased, with significant drops in various regions, indicating a more favorable supply-side environment [5][14] Key Companies and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend coal-fired power leaders and companies with stable electricity prices and integrated coal power operations, such as Huaneng International and Huadian International [8][14] - It also recommends monitoring companies in the wind and solar sectors, including Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [8][14]