固定收益定期：持债过节

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report recommends holding bonds during the Spring Festival. The current fundamental situation provides background support for the bond market, with continued loose liquidity, potential further decline in short - term interest rates, limited post - festival bond supply pressure, stronger market allocation power, and limited impact of the stock market on the bond market due to the low duration of trading institutions. If trading institutions increase leverage, it will further boost the bond market. The overall market trend is in a gradual recovery, and the dumbbell strategy is relatively more advantageous [1][5][21] Summary by Related Content 1. Current Bond Market Performance - This week, the bond market continued to recover, with long - term bonds performing more prominently. Interest rates across all tenors declined. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.1bps and 3.8bps respectively to 1.81% and 2.25%. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds dropped by 1.6bps and 1.8bps respectively, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit (CD) rate broke through 1.6%, falling 1bps to 1.59%. The dumbbell strategy recommended earlier achieved better returns [1][9] 2. Reasons for Recommending Holding Bonds During the Spring Festival 2.1 Loose liquidity will continue - The current liquidity remains stably loose, which is beneficial for the leverage strategy. Overnight funds are around 1.4%, and the 7 - day repurchase rate is around 1.4% - 1.5%. This is not due to increased central bank capital injection but rather weak financing demand and capital supplementation from other channels such as fiscal deposits. After the Spring Festival, funds tend to be even looser [1][10] - The loose funds will protect the bond market and may drive interest rates to decline from short - term to long - term. As funds remain loose, the CD rate may further decline to 1.5% - 1.55%. The current steep curve means that a decline in short - term interest rates will enhance the cost - effectiveness of long - term bonds and drive down long - term interest rates. The spread between the 10 - year treasury bond and the 1 - year CD is over 20bps, the highest since the second half of 2023 [2][13] 2.2 Limited post - festival market supply pressure and high bank allocation demand - In the first five weeks of this year, government bond net financing was about 2 trillion. If the first - quarter net financing is the same as last year at about 4.1 trillion, the net financing in the five weeks after the festival until the end of the quarter will also be about 2 trillion, with a weekly average similar to that before the festival. Since credit is more concentrated in January, post - festival bank and other institutional allocation needs are stronger [3][14] - Bank liability costs are continuously decreasing, alleviating the pressure on net interest margins. The scale of bonds with high floating profits bought before the second half of 2024 has decreased after realizing floating profits last year, reducing the space and demand for banks to realize floating profits and thus lowering the risk in the second half of the quarter for the bond market [3][14] 2.3 Limited pressure from other capital markets on the bond market and potential new driving forces - Although the rise of other capital markets may impact the bond market, the impact is mainly through trading institutions such as funds and securities firms. The duration of these institutions has dropped to a low level. The duration of medium - and long - term public offering interest - rate bond funds decreased to 3.35 years at the end of 2025, lower than the 3.45 years at the end of 2024, which means limited continued adjustment pressure on the bond market [4][16] - If the market continues to strengthen, the leverage - increasing demand of funds and securities firms may become a new driving force for the bond market to strengthen [4][16] 3. Overall Market Trend and Strategy - The overall market trend is in a gradual recovery process. The dumbbell strategy is relatively more advantageous. Since the duration of allocation - type institutions is relatively high, the market direction is mainly determined by them. With the continuous decline of their liability costs, the cost - effectiveness of bonds as allocation assets has increased. The stable liabilities and insufficient real - economy financing demand lead to asset scarcity, enabling allocation - type institutions to continue increasing their bond holdings. Trading institutions mainly affect the speed of market recovery. If they quickly increase their positions, it will accelerate the decline of interest rates [6][21]