短纤、瓶片周度报告-20260208

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - fiber's short - term view is a volatile market, and medium - term it is bearish. For the pre - festival period, it is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to hold light positions to guard against raw material fluctuations and post - festival inventory accumulation. The current high crude oil price has a certain geopolitical premium, and the possibility of geopolitical mitigation is higher than further deterioration. Although the polyester inventory and the raw material inventory of each downstream link are low, and the finished product inventory is controllable, the downstream's holiday plan this year is longer than that of polyester, and it is necessary to test whether the downstream export and domestic demand rhythm can quickly digest the inventory during the Spring Festival [8]. - Bottle - chip's short - term view is also a volatile market. Before the festival, it is recommended to hold light positions to guard against raw material fluctuations. The current high crude oil price has a geopolitical premium, and the possibility of geopolitical mitigation is higher than further deterioration. The bottle - chip factory load has reached the low point in Q1. Recently, the spot of large factories is tight. According to the current maintenance and device return plan, bottle - chips will be in a tight balance from February to April, with strong support. The factory's actual inventory is low, and under high processing fees, attention should be paid to the rhythm of post - festival maintenance return [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Short - fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot additional fee is 900 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee is around 950 yuan/ton, which is normal. The strategies include band - trading with attention to position control, holding reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and no cross - variety trading [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: Short - fiber factories have further carried out maintenance and production cuts, with the average load reduced to 77.7%. The reduction and suspension efforts are relatively large for low - melting - point and hollow short - fibers, while the cotton - type load remains at 91.2%. - Demand: The terminal operating rate continues to decline, and the downstream has basically entered the Spring Festival mode. By February 10, the downstream texturing, weaving, and dyeing links are basically on holiday. Statically, the finished product inventory in the yarn and grey fabric links is average, and the raw material inventory is low. The export orders have improved month - on - month, mainly because the current tariff to the United States is not significantly inferior to that of Southeast Asia. The sustainability needs to be observed after the festival. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 5.1 days and the physical inventory at 12.1 days [8]. Bottle - chip (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 600 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee is 600 yuan/ton, which is relatively high. The strategies include band - trading with attention to position control, holding basis positive spreads for inter - period trading, and no cross - variety trading [11]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average operating rate this week remains at 73%. Huarun Jiangyin is under maintenance, Wankai Haining's 400,000 - ton device has reduced production by 50% until the end of January, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton device has stopped for reorganization, and Yisheng Dalian's 350,000 - ton device has restarted. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of Hainan's 500,000 - ton device in the second half of the month. The supply has reached the low point in Q1, and the maintenance plans of some factories have been postponed to mid - to - late March [10]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate is at a high level and is expected to gradually go on holiday before the festival. The average operating rate of beverage factories has rebounded to around 80 - 85%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet materials have also increased month - on - month. As of the weekend, the overall average inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is over 11 days, and the inventory is controllable [10]. Basis and Month - to - Month Difference - The actual situation of bottle - chips is strong, and the basis has been repaired. The month - to - month difference basically remains flat [22]. Spot Price and Important Spreads - The spot price fluctuates mainly, and the trading sentiment is acceptable. By Friday, it is in the range of 6180 - 6380 yuan/ton, and the average FOB price is 825 - 850 US dollars/ton [26]. - The bottle - chip - PVC spread was high from 2020 - 2022, and there was a significant substitution in the sheet material consumption field. Since 2024, the bottle - chip - PVC spread has been at a high level of 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton, and the driving force for further substitution is low. The bottle - chip has a high cost - performance ratio compared with general plastics such as PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues. Recently, the cost - performance ratio of bottle - chips relative to PP is still high [28][29]. Production and Operating Rate - In late 2025, the production capacity base was revised. Since January 2026, the production capacity base has been adjusted to 21.47 million tons/year. This week, the bottle - chip load has dropped to 73% (calculated based on 21.47 million tons) [32]. Raw Materials - PTA: The PTA load is low, and the inventory pressure is not large [40]. - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol load is at a high level, and the price has rebounded significantly [45]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton. The bottle - chip processing fee has strengthened, with the spot at 600 - 630 yuan/ton. The export profit calculated based on the domestic polymerization cost is about 900 - 950 yuan/ton, reflecting a relatively high level of export profit [47]. Inventory - This week, the procurement sentiment of traders is acceptable, and the inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is around over 11 days (CCF caliber) [52]. Device Changes - Many factories in different regions have carried out maintenance or production reduction. For example, in the East China region, Sanfangxiang's 750,000 - ton device was originally planned to be maintained before the Spring Festival but was advanced to early January for maintenance and is expected to restart in February. Huarun Jiangyin's 1.2 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip device has been under maintenance since mid - January and is expected to restart in March. In the South China region, Yisheng Hainan's 250,000 - ton device stopped for maintenance at the end of December, and another 500,000 - ton device was arranged for maintenance in mid - January. In the Southwest region, Chongqing Wankai's bottle - chip device has a total of 600,000 tons stopped, and it is expected to remain shut down for a long time in 2026. Sichuan Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip device officially stopped for liquidation and reorganization in mid - January. In the Northeast region, Yisheng Dahua's 350,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip device, which stopped for maintenance in early September, restarted in mid - January. In the Northwest region, Yipu's 120,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip device stopped in late December, and the restart time is undetermined [58]. Demand - Downstream operating rate: The operating rate of beverage enterprises has rebounded slightly to 80 - 95%, with some areas slightly higher or lower. In the sheet material aspect, the operating rate in East China is 50 - 70%, and in South China, it is around 40%. The average operating rate of edible oil factories is 60 - 80%, with some areas slightly higher or lower [62][63]. - Beverage production and sales: In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative year - on - year growth of soft drink production was 3.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of beverage product retail sales was 1.0%. The sales volume of beverage categories was under pressure in Q3 [65][68]. - Edible oil: In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative year - on - year increase in edible oil production was 3.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in catering revenue was 2.0%. The edible oil has entered the year - end stocking peak season [71]. - Sheet material: The demand is neutral with support [75]. Global Trade Flow of Bottle - chips - Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has grown very little in recent years. A small amount of growth is basically concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Indian sub - continent. In addition, there are bottlenecks in cost and supply for the "bottle - to - bottle" RPET substitution of virgin bottle - chips in Europe and the United States. The overseas downstream demand growth will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. - The main trade flows of China's bottle - chip exports are: (1) China - Southeast Asia - South Asia; (2) China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe; (3) China - South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East, etc. for re - export to North America; (4) China - Africa and South America [78]. Export Situation - In December 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle - chips and slices was 702,000 tons, a year - on - year decline of 3.7%. Among them, the export volume of tariff number 39076910 was 113,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, and the export volume of 39076110 was 589,000 tons, a year - on - year decline of 4.9%. In addition, the import volume of polyester slices was 31,000 tons, a year - on - year decline of 11.1%. From January to December 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle - chips and slices was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.1%. Among them, the export volume of tariff number 39076910 was 1.336 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.0%, and the export volume of 39076110 was 6.454 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [86]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From February to March 2026, bottle - chips are in a tight balance. The supply assumption is that some factories start maintenance from late January until after the Spring Festival. The demand assumption is that the downstream is calculated based on a 4% year - on - year growth in the peak season of last year. The national subsidy has overdrawn the annual demand, and there are few new policy stimuli before the end of the year. The overall export in Q4 has a slight increase (compensation for the mismatch of the shipping rhythm in September and the southern hemisphere's summer) [95]. Polyester Industry Short - fiber Valuation - The basis has been generally repaired, the inter - month relationship maintains contango, and the near - month has gradually flattened. The disk processing fee is relatively low [99][104]. Operating Rate - The operating rate of short - fiber factories has decreased, and they have started to carry out centralized production cuts. The short - fiber load is 77.7%, and the cotton - type load is 91.3%. Many devices have stopped for maintenance, such as Zhejiang Times' 60,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple device, Zhejiang Huaxing's 150,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple device, etc. [106][111]. Polyester Inventory - The fiber inventory is generally neutral, and the bottle - chip inventory is at a low level [112]. Polyester Export - In December, the polyester export increased year - on - year, with a differentiated month - on - month performance [117]. Polyester Profit - The polyester profit has recovered month - on - month but is still generally low, with bottle - chips performing better [118]. Short - fiber Downstream - The operating rate of polyester yarn has decreased month - on - month, and the downstream has concentrated on pre - festival holidays [126]. Weaving Operating Rate - The weaving operating rate is accelerating its decline. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing has been adjusted down to 17%, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been adjusted down to 9%, and the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing has decreased to 45% [128][132]. Weaving Inventory - The raw material stocking of terminal factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is weaker than in previous years. The price of polyester filament factories has loosened, expecting downstream stocking, but the replenishment progress is limited. The raw material stocking of terminal texturing and weaving is relatively low compared with the Spring Festival eve of previous years, and there are obvious individual differences. The grey fabric price is stable, and the weaving end has gradually entered the holiday mode [133][135]. Chinese Textile and Apparel Retail - From November to December, the overall situation is weak [137]. Textile and Apparel Export - From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year export decline is 5.1% [144].