Changjiang Securities·2026-02-08 11:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank sector [14]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the performance of insurance and brokerage sectors during historical bull markets in A-shares, highlighting their relative performance and the impact of different market types on their returns [3][17]. - It suggests that the current valuation of the non-bank sector has entered a cost-effective allocation range, recommending a focus on high-elasticity insurance and financial IT stocks while timing investments according to policy and regulatory rhythms [3][9]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance Analysis - Insurance and brokerage sectors have shown certain elastic characteristics during past bull markets, with both sectors achieving relative excess returns in three out of six analyzed bull market cycles [17]. - In different types of bull markets, brokerage firms tend to outperform insurance companies in leverage-driven or rapid bull markets, while insurance performs better in slow or value-driven bull markets [8][18]. - The report notes that brokerage firms often lead in performance at the beginning of bull markets, while insurance companies show resilience throughout the early stages and may gain momentum in the latter stages as interest rates and investment returns improve [8][18]. Current Market Outlook - Since 2025, there has been a notable divergence in performance between insurance and brokerage sectors, reflecting a preference for a structural "slow bull" market in the current cycle [9]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities sector has adjusted to 1.44x, placing it at the 24th percentile since 2012, while the average price-to-earnings value (PEV) for the insurance sector is at the 37.5th percentile [9]. - The report emphasizes that the current market correction presents a favorable time for quality allocations in the sector, with insurance companies expected to see a significant upward trend in return on equity (ROE) driven by improved liability cost management and asset allocation strategies [9][10]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks that are likely to benefit from the slow bull market, including major life insurance companies such as Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, as well as brokerage and financial IT firms like Jiufang Zhitu, Zhinan Zhen, Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, CICC, Dongfang Securities, and Guotai Junan [10].