资产配置周报：宏观背景下的化工行业改善持续性增强，关注油价变量-20260208

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The IMF projects global economic growth rates of 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts[8] - The ACC's global chemical production index remained flat in December, with a slight increase of 0.3% in the Asia-Pacific region, while North America and Europe saw declines of 0.8%[8] - Since 2022, the number of chemical plant closures in Europe has surged sixfold, with a cumulative capacity loss of 37 million tons, representing about 9% of Europe's capacity[8] Group 2: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to improve sustainably, driven by enhanced domestic competitiveness and stable profitability among industry leaders[8] - Despite current oil prices being relatively low, they are still higher than the levels seen at the start of previous cycles, indicating a need to monitor oil price fluctuations[8] Group 3: Financial Market Overview - In the week ending February 6, 2026, global stock markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones and European stocks leading gains; the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 23,880 billion yuan, down from 30,365 billion yuan[11][17] - The 1Y Chinese government bond yield rose by 2.08 basis points to 1.3207%, while the 10Y yield fell by 0.1 basis points to 1.8102%[12] Group 4: Commodity Tracking - WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.5% to $63.55 per barrel, with U.S. crude oil production decreasing by 263,000 barrels per day year-on-year[29] - Gold prices increased by 1.77% to $4,966.61 per ounce, with the Chinese central bank continuing to increase its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in January[43]